Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Picture production techniques of high-grade beef is what - beef cattle - goats - Meat - Focus ...
The production of high grade beef cattle, which in tenderness, flavor, juiciness and other major targets, the level required to achieve the required standard. High-end beef cow body mainly refers to the meat on the inside and outside the eye muscle (the longissimus muscle) and the arm of meat, the four parts of the short loin. This four-part weight of the meat about 5% of live weight beef -6%, or fattening cattle before slaughter weight of 500 kg, then high-grade beef is about the four parts 25-30 kg. per kilogram of high quality beef can be sold for luxury hotels in Beijing, 90-100 yuan. In other words, a high weight of high-grade beef accounts for only 5% -6%, while its total output value has accounted for a cow 46% -47% output, the economic benefits of the high and broad prospects for development can be imagined, summed up the experience at home and abroad, high-grade beef cattle fattening techniques are: (1) strict control requirements of beef cattle fattening selected age 6 months age weaned calves, weighing 200 kg, fattening to slaughter 18-24 days of age, more than 30 days or more, usually not the most high-grade beef production. (2) strict fattening cattle to slaughter weight of 18-24 days before slaughter should reach 450-500 kg live weight or more, there is no such live weight before slaughter, beef quality up to and asked to reach a certain weight before slaughter, the two are indispensable. (3) select high quality products in China is currently no specialized beef cattle breeds. fattening the best selection of high-grade beef cattle breeds of foreign domestic cattle bulls and bull hybrid generation. Hybrid generation of strong heterosis of beef cattle, physical big, fast growth, high weight gain and beef quality, a higher proportion of high-quality meat. In addition, varieties of cattle breeds in China, there are some varieties of meat production performance is also very prominent, for example, Qinchuan After 30 years of systematic selection, and its size has gradually changed from the Battle with the meat-type, equivalent to the average level of outstanding foreign, other varieties of cattle breeds of meat also has good performance, can produce a high-grade beef. (4) General feeding stage (for 4 months) of the feed at this stage to roughage-based diet, concentrate 25% of total diet; dietary crude protein content of 12%; daily feed intake per cow is about 4 kg of dry matter. (5) strength of fattening stage (time of 8 months) If you plan to fattening cattle feed to 18 months old, weighing about 500 kilograms slaughtered after 8 months of feeding should be in this way: 1,250-300 kilogram of body weight phase, the proportion of the diet 55% concentrate, containing 11% crude protein, dry matter intake per head of cattle at 6.2 kg, 55% of feeding period, average daily gain of about 0.7 kg . 2,350-400 kilogram of body weight phase, the proportion of the diet 75% concentrate, containing 10.8% crude protein, dry matter intake 7.6 kg per head, feeding period of 45 days, average daily gain 1.1 kg. 3,450 - stage of 500 kg body weight, the proportion of dietary concentrate 75% -80%, with 10% crude protein, dry matter intake per head of cattle at 7.6-805 kg, 1.1 kg daily gain. This stage is also called meat quality stage, fattening cattle carcass muscle fibers in the mixture of fatty meat can form marbling, and is correct at this stage of the breeding relationship great. (6) is a scientific and standardized management of beef cattle breeding shed or fences to be taken keeping. homes When fed to a cow tethered a fixed, the reins should not be too long to limit the excessive movement caused by consumption of free energy. fence when feeding, fattening cattle within the fenced backyard, about 15 per column, each of the first possession area of 4-5 square meters, ad libitum, free access to water. the proportion of dietary concentrate to rise to above 75%. at this time to pay attention to fattening cattle at any time to digest the situation, with or without belly up, or diarrhea, if it is found to timely treatment, adjust dietary structure and Feeding Amount. fattening bulls can be castrated or castrated before, where a plan to slaughter bulls 18 months of age, to not castrated as well, rapid weight gain, fattening effect. In addition, mature beef cattle production in the high-end processing is an indispensable link. just slaughtered, high acidity, fleshy and stiff, poor taste, not reach the requirements of high-quality beef. effective way to solve this problem is to hang after the carcass splitting row of acid treatment, acid discharge temperature requirements 0-4 degrees Celsius, usually 7 days hanging around time. This beef after full maturation, a number of enzymes within the muscle under the action of the series of biochemical reactions that decrease the acidity of the meat, greatly improves tenderness. So high must ensure that this part of beef production. Currently self-employed and fattening beef cattle farm in rural areas more than the absence of this link, and bleeding on the ground, slaughtering and skinning is also very unhealthy and affect sales. To this end, Under the current conditions in rural areas, only organize themselves into joint-stock production cooperatives, relying on the accumulation of funds or bank loans, the establishment of meat processing and cold storage, mining can guarantee the implementation of this part.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Complete History of the strongest joke - catlike sharp - the focus of blog
1. A male deer, it walked, getting faster and faster, and finally it becomes the highway (deer )!!!! 2. Two tomato cross the road, a car sped past, one of which Dodge less than was crushed, the other tomatoes are squashed tomatoes pointing laughed: Ha ha ha dig, tomato sauce ... 3. wolf said: a? results put the wolf eat the lamb. 4. stones and cake fight, put the cake scored a kick rocks into the sea ... ... ... ... Once there was a couple of private set for life, but the boys need to perform military service, and girls set it vowed to give the girls a diamond ring, and promised three years later and the girl meet, that time, the ring as a wedding ring. finally 3 years later, boys and girls have been waiting for , has been not wait, she was too sad, desperate thrown into the sea, her diamond ring, breakaway. However, the fact that boys have been waiting for the girl, however, misunderstood girl dating sites, so it will never become a sorry. ... boy was heartbroken over a few years, boys go fishing, guess what he caught? cakes!!! 5. dumplings answer is boys or girls because boys are circumcised 6 dumplings. There is only called the Little Yellow Duck One day he was hit by a car, he cried: dead ... 8. Once upon a bird every day through a corn field he is very unfortunate, but one day a fire broke out patch of corn field corn have become all the popcorn after the bird in the past that the snow ... ... to cold dead ... 9. When will want reunification of Taiwan? buy Instant Noodles 10. Antony and Ebo Road without incident each time is getting chat. Antony: is Children's Day. a. for a while! I've been to this place, I remember a near Merlin, may go a little farther to the an hour later - Cao Ren: To find the plum ... ... ; Dad, I'm not silly ah? met, why they did not greet it?? (assuming they can speak) because ... because ... because they are not familiar with ah ? 15. Question: How to make the quiet sparrow? answer: Press it a bit. Reason: silence (silent sparrow pressure ). 16. an unfortunate students caught by the enemy, the enemy tied him in the poles, and then asked him: enemy sentence, the result was electrocuted ... ... he said: it? where? quickly took me to! worship which the hostess? What color is it? red, wrong! is white friends do not believe you are obsessed with Spider-Man's English: spider man (white man) 20. Why does the Dominican fall? Please think twice ... because the floor slippery thing 21. A group of animals PARTY was finished, the burst into the 7-11 convenience store, because too noisy, the results are out playing staff, but the lamb left unattended inside the shop, may I ask why? 24-hour convenience stores are not closing ... ah ... ... 22. glasses and coffee mugs with the cross the road, when suddenly someone shouted: car coming! results hit by a car glass, coffee cup, but nothing, I ask why? coffee cup with ears ah! 23. a horse that , the company launched a grand new products, ass 3, referred to as MP3 ... 24. I hate two kinds of people: First, racial discrimination; second black; third did not know the number! 25. I want to thank Xie Xiaoze round, moved toward the river blue, Nagase love, beauty of bamboo Ryoko, high tree Maria, Kawamoto dance, worry wood pupil, summer Mumei evening, Qin ruler until the United States, Whitehead, Kudo Kwai, hill within the true from the, shore Sichuan Miho, Nishida Friends of the century, Sawai teeth clothing, Fujisaki color flower, leaf mountain �� �� ki, Inoue Chihiro, Matsumura, yuki Izumi Shizuka, etc. which I know the name and do not know the name, had appeared in my computer has now been removed or are still in the computer exotic friends: often dead of night, is that they carry me through one after another lonely night; in the spirit of the most bad when I was their to comfort me in a timely manner; when I play CS exhausting, is that they made me realize smooth pleasure; I do not feel depressed when the state is the spirit of whom they let me HIGH up to 26. Now seismic prediction accuracy did improve a lot, this time only a thin two words: predict, The results are in the ; Bibi said: : We are starting a small name for himself, and I called : My name is said his nickname now, people are respected me, call me Ying Ying: People call me the wash, even found that he was changing the way back to childhood!!! 30. celery walked, I suddenly felt stomach pain, then he ??? that is Qin Conservancy (hard) slightly!!! Qin (food) What is the color of feces? answer: yellow because: Qin Shi Huang (Qin feces yellow) 31. there is a fat .... From the twenty-roof jump . ... ... .. turned into a dead fat man!! 32. Once there was pieces of bread, it felt hungry, put his eating. Once there was a beer, it felt thirsty, put his drink .. Once upon a a virgin, she felt tired, put his sleep .... 33. people who are the ancestors of peanuts because peanuts ? ? ? 34. ancient characters which were considered in white-collar workers do? Mengmu moved three (thousands) 35. Zhang Fei: ... diary, the diary has been found to run out, he wanted to buy back out again to write, but has been at o'clock. but he got on my bike in the dark to find the streets, looking for a long time finally found a bookstore and not closing to go in now. There is a diary that he liked, and asked how much the boss. boss with a very low voice, said: But I only take 50 out. Bear to buy a home in this diary, he removed the packaging and put the room on the table in front of the window. when he would like to take a shower and then come out after the diary ... ... bath, which stay in front of that desk even the windows were open, wind blowing from page to page diary ... ... quickly blew open the last page, which stay on the go to stop, but it was too late, the last page is opened by the wind-KB happened ... ... I saw which stay a scream as he saw the last page reads: (Please pull down) and then continue to pull ... pull ... fast, then pull a little ... can, eventually, pull a little ... read the last page --- Price: 3 per 38. a peach on the way to go, I walked suddenly said, my heart good hard ah! a walnut on the way to go, I walked a sudden, I Good thick face ah! a Coke on the way to go, I walked feeling very bored, suddenly said, I'm so Coke ah! a heating on the way to go, easily help pedestrians walked suddenly said, I'm so enthusiastic ah! a key walk on the road, walked a sudden, I was Qu Yuan ah! happiness of the lock down for the sake ah! a meter on the way to go, I walked a sudden, I was literati ah! no trace of her Thousands Baidu ah! a tadpole on the road to go, I walked to meet another tadpole, walked suddenly said, we were not QQ ah! married a hawthorn walking on the road, walked a sudden, I face looks red ah! a divorce on the way to go hawthorn, walked suddenly said, my heart good acid ah! remarried a hawthorn walking on the road, walked suddenly said, my stomach has a son of the ah! a tea bag on the way to go, I walked suddenly said, I want to be hot ah! a dumplings to go on the road, walked suddenly said, I want to be pack ah! a lighter on the road walk, walked suddenly said, my stomach was full of gas, to get angry ah! a cockroach on the way to go, I walked a sudden, I strongly ah! a thimble on the way to go, I walked suddenly said I Dinga! an ice-cream on the way to go, I walked a sudden, I cold ah! a spider walking on the street, walked suddenly said, I still want to lie online ah! a fish on the way to go, walk walking suddenly said, I like diving every day, ah! a Guan Yu was walking, I walked a sudden, I Riding Alone for Thousands of Miles ah! an eagle on the way to go, I walked to meet a bear, suddenly walked said the eagle bears us play ah! a compass on the way to go, I walked suddenly said, how do I get lost ah? an earthworm on the way to go, I walked suddenly said, how do I find leg ah? 39. Once upon a silk sheets in the eyes closed I dream, I suddenly felt as if something was lacking, I kept thinking was alone, opened the door and saw the original is just about finished blanket will be back, I dream of electric wire hugged Blanket wrote: Brother ? ? You can come back, I have the cold dead ? ? ? 40. a German, French, and a Japanese mine to go to work. boss is American, he was German, said: you physically well, you are responsible for coolies. weeks, they began doing manual. A few days later the Germans and the French people find the Japanese gone, looking for a long time, or before they decided to go back after work. Germans began to work, the Japanese suddenly jumped out, called loudly: also put themselves one by one to pull the hair down, turned to Penguin, said: . red Q: When you stir the coffee with the right hand or left hand Mei said: red right hand, said: Oh, You're brilliant, are not afraid of hot, like I have with the spoon. 44. Do you know why the penguins live What in the Antarctic? because they're cold ... .. 45. There is a snack bar selling dumplings no business, so she went to ask how do gong, gong said: You have to find a fresh corpse to its bun into dumplings, and then sold that business will be great, but the family had asked that they do not eat these dumplings, otherwise there will be KB's going to happen. boss tried the effect of really good, so she would no longer to find the body. The next day her son to take lunch, but could not find the refrigerator so he went looking for a look and found a lunch box he thought was his to take, and did not think the box is the father leftover dumplings, he opened a run at noon under the hop, the morning of 10 dumplings is obviously why the right to become five, he tried to cover up and then opened the lid and into two of the! You know why? because dumplings on a stick in the lid. 46. a plumber to apply for a job foreman: in front of you to try ... to see the woods for a minute you can cut a few trees over a minute ... .. .... foreman : wow .... a minute 20. ... is too much ... .. where you work before? workers: the Sahara Forest ... ... foreman: I heard �� ... ... ... you worker only heard of the Sahara: the ah ... .. later changed the name of it! 47. Wife: I'm blind, stepped on dog feces would marry you. Husband: I was really blind will marry you step on dog feces. dog feces: Oh my good luck ! lay there have been two of you to step on ... ... 48. a story, once upon a lifetime fixing a pair of lovers, but the boys need to perform military service, they and the girls set the oath, to the girl a diamond ring, and promised Today, after three years and the girl meet, that time, the ring as a wedding ring. finally 3 years later, boys in the boat back home to marry a woman has heard the news over his sad, desperate to ring thrown into the sea, three days after the boat. boys go to the street of small restaurants for dinner. served a fish. he pick up the fish bite and bite one of the hard things, threw a look, guess what What did he see? fish bones! 49. One day, a teacher took a group of adopted children to the mountains of fruit, he announced: ran to adopt fruit. set the time comes, all the children are gathered. Teacher: Teacher: nautical miles. Therefore, it becomes a result, it becomes escape the fate of being eaten, all to be as into the could not help but say: broke up .. he has been crying crying crying .... very sad ... the results have been made ... ... ... shoots ... he was ... 53. One day, cook the black stool stool to see the lump of white, black big asked: Why are you so pretty long so white? white stool was so angry! he said: I'm not a stool! my ice cream!!! 54. have a cat found a mouse .... Then E Hu sheep-like rush to put him toward the mice ate the mouse, but then been eaten by the cat ... .. Why??? because the tiger could not tell silly mouse 55. a software company are looking for on this day, a dog ran candidates, supervisors feel very depressed and wanted to drive out the dog. the dog out of a piece of paper with a pen, it is neat to write a few words: Do not discriminate against animals. Explorer know This is not a dog, out of curiosity, he decided to try. Explorer out the conditions for candidates, which reads: 1. must be typed .2. must be programmed .3. at least proficient in a foreign language. Then came the dog front of the computer, it is skillfully playing an article, there is the preparation of a very complex process. and then came to head in front of the manager said: Meow!! 56. toothpaste sister often play fast and loose with a soft bristled toothbrush brother once about dating brother love child any connection with the electric toothbrush to a new neighbor today toothpaste girl: ! because I comb ? eat the grass will not let such a smelly fart. . roses for her, and received the flowers he sent, and she is always happy to look inadvertently revealing look puzzled, until one day, she read that the number of flowers on behalf of the florid to know, not flowers must be the number of pairs, and ten representatives of florid rose really touching it! But she still hopes to hear him personally say, I asked eleven she rose on behalf of what he , had only prevaricate. He rose up to ask the flower eleven beautiful words, growers said: planted a flower three years, heard what the language of flowers!'d often heard of men to women to buy flowers sweet words to say, then why do you put all eleven of each flower? he puzzled and said, growers said: Because ... ... ... buy ten get one ah ? 59. One day Jesus was nothing to do, where to go to the entrance of heaven just hang ~ walked away, and saw a line of elderly people there are very familiar, as if Joseph was his father, but he was not sure ~ ~ So he decided to talk over with him. Hello, may I ask what is your name ah? old man, then I ask what you do before death? Sir, your son is not the hands and feet have been nailed over? father ~ ~ because I'm your son ah! more so a few days, banks who said: also a KB is the most horrible songs ... and the source of it, because this song has a little-known story behind it ... This wife's daughter. childhood become handsome, but slightly older age is more ugly. and therefore not seen her father from, and Jade had his father not to leave any child feel ... jade so unwilling to see the people, and gradually closed. even his mother and sister are not close to her ... only because it was ugly as a kind of contagious plague. The only way to accompany the jade smile on his face, only that the baby and always will. regardless of the morning the evening, both Yu Jade holding it ... sad about the end of the age of fifteen when the Mood for Love, for world-weary sadness and sense of self, in their own room hanged himself at an early age ... but also because the closed-yu, no one will enter her the room. In this way, until the body from the waist length hair to the floor, changed from white to dark red dress, was the mother of his mother discovered ... Seeing cried, in dealing with things after the mother has been unable to forget the time scenario, she would prefer everything to their second daughter Lan fault. In this way, the increasingly frail mother grief, and finally in his 30 years of age, depression, still hold the baby before he died, as if that their daughter should follow a to the ... ... things have died in the mother and child under the gradually dull. but always at night when the crows crow, came a weak voice ...! does not always stay with me? Pine carving the doll's face carved into the face of the cat (the cat as the mascot of Japan), but in order not to make it sound (with the general himself was guilty of the concubine daughter born of fear), the generals ordered not carve a cat face, mouth prospective way, doll house placed in the department spent over a hundred years ... .. and for the country's policy in the lock after a series of wars, the massacre of a northern village and exhausted, of course, was all the erosion of all, In this way, as foreigners in the eyes of Antiquities - dolls were sold was removed around the last hundred years in this doll is open in the world, but the story is still little known and because of the faces of dolls to please, so very many wild products, flow in the country. But the collection of ordinary people to discuss it only because of its human shape. has this baby story is so sad, you must have seen, it is the kind of cop that the original cat, man ... please pull in the end) Hello Kitty! 62 . The story happened in a long time ago in China, good friends scissors, stone, cloth, finger-guessing game to play a game together this afternoon to go home ... I walked out of the stone noticed a street lamp, Aladdin's that for similar curious kind of lamp he picked up, brushed the dust on the bottle lamp suddenly cropped up in white smoke white smoke slowly slowly emerging out of a Dragon .. Dragon .. but dry, a little nutrition bad he spoke: Stone: it .. that ... you can put all three of us will be adults? We have tired every day, day of the finger-guessing game. half and half dragon ... ... stone or white smoke to disperse stone, scissors, or scissors, only the cloth is no longer a cloth, successfully turned man of the cloth! in a time of joy the two worry, just someone passing by here to see this scene, put him to record down, this one is Mencius. He wrote: cloth successful, become a person. and then handed down to posterity remark, also joined the Chinese teaching materials. 63. an old man died, because public memorial, so the body with ice cold up, so please come out again when the public memorial. just the time the weather was very hot, there are drops of water after thawing in the body, seen in the next grandson, very tense shouting: Khan, yeah ... desire to do what the man thought for a moment ... ... I heard that cats have nine Mania ... 9 Mania you gave me .. it .. God said, slightly to your wish come true .... One day, that person is free, bored want to die a death ... forget ... Well anyway, 9 Mania lying on the tracks .... The results a train in the past. ... The man is dead ... Why is this? because that station has 10 train cars ... 65. flurry asked Dad: ice to see her looking at the red light, green light red light changing ... or stop in the road, motionless. Then the young lady traffic police came to ask: exchanges for several years it recently, it seems less a sense of light phone to ask her why she is just head down, then do not say anything ... ... I do not know how to do, after all. ... emotionally and can not be forced to listen to friends that she had recently with moving very close to a man I can not believe ... .. do not want to believe because I really like her ... ... ... .. day in the street, but I actually saw her holding hands with another is very close to him say that instant smile ... my heart broken ... ... .... After I inquired to know him ... turned out to be medical students at home has opened a large hospital my third class on the ratio of university students which is ... ... .. this I've been awake a few days or wanted to revive the feelings between us for a long time ... .. I think the decision to send her an apple a day because I firmly believe that a foreigner to the Carrefour shopping, checkout, the clerk asked: ... you ... speak ... chinese? called in the past questioned. police asked as to why embark on a small highway, asked after delivery of tickets to him ... that says 1. not wearing a seatbelt 2. driving without a license 3. speed of less than 60 70. pretty sure to MM Kane ? ? ? ? coffee diet: Materials: one hundred grams of coffee beans (raw) water 500 cc ... practice: 1, drink 500cc of water 2. ... Scattered on the ground the beans, pick out one. Each day three, repeat 71 a month .... Life is like a stool, once washed away, it will not come back. Life is like a stool, how to pull all the appearance, but they are not the same every time .... Life is like a stool sometimes pull very cool, sometimes tangled pull features! Life is like a stool, you never know what will pull out stuff .. Life is like a stool, how the results you want, how we should be planted. Life like the stool is often hard for a long time, but only a few bursts .. Life is like a fart stool, even more beautiful embellishment, its essence is still the same .. Life is like a stool, and only brave in silence. Therefore, As we often say, Good news and bad news! read your test results, I find that you have potential homosexual tendencies!! and difficult to cure! this guy said: Oh my God! that good news? doctors shy to say: I yeah you are quite lovely that ? 73. One day, a physics teacher in a class Girls in sick, 40 are female students who take classes will be looking forward to the physical class is a great guy actually male teacher, a female provocative language with the students, said: We Can not school teachers, play some excitement exciting game? male teacher was silent child, said: good ~ ~ you close up the students textbooks, exams now! 74. One day, my sister crying cockroaches the running back .. cockroaches father asked:
Monday, December 27, 2010
How to estimate the cost of home decorating
(A) the cost of decorating a few main factors 1. Decorative items and project the amount of the direct factors that affect cost. In the decorative front should first determine the content of decoration (as do the number of cabinets, paint or wallpaper, what kind of hanging the top and choose what any ware and shop floor materials, etc.), then the accuracy of calculations based on volume (the amount of engineering labor and materials included) .2. decoration of difficulty and accuracy requirements are the main factors affect the cost. such as pipelines, open wire to go cheap, go to your dark line; ordinary ceiling are cheaper, and more complex high and low levels of the ceiling will be more expensive; the same flooring, solid wood flooring and laminate flooring is not the same labor costs; In addition, the different grades of sanitary installation costs will be different from, the installation of 3,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan a set of .3 is not the same. decorative quality is the key to the cost impact. the same material or equipment, imported products, the joint venture products China-made products with significant differences between the price. If same ware, made for 1 to 3 thousand dollars, while the joint venture, generally around 5 to 8 thousand dollars, that imports of at least 1 million yuan, and some Even more than 30,000 yuan. For most people, the selection is very luxurious. important principle is to key positions as to their economic capacity should be appropriate to use some high-grade materials are available elsewhere, a number of common materials, so the cost will come down. If the selection of paint, the wall with the flexibility of high-grade paint coatings are available, while the top surface of the matte paint used ordinary .4. market price volatility is also a factor. To keep abreast of market conditions, purchase more in the quality and price when on some units of different levels, charges are different ---- the higher the level the more expensive price. Leaving aside the quality of construction and decoration company's size alone is great, good office location, space and so on, are also a large overhead management costs . (b) to determine the standard decoration decorative items and decorative items and decorative standards, should be based on housing conditions and family economic conditions to be considered, not only do not copy someone else's way (which will lose the self-style), and do not blind comparisons, because and requirements of each grade decoration is different, prices will vary greatly. such as the decoration of ordinary residents of mid-range standard example (Liangshiyiting a cupboard of a room by the balcony of the house twin assumptions Guardian): bathroom, cookroom land brick paving, tiles affixed to the wall; the top of the bathroom ceiling with PVC plastic buckle to do; the kitchen ceiling with a melamine coating; interior semi-gloss wall paint brush, paint the ceiling with a matte finish; living room (the restaurant) to do a meter high about wood dado, ground brick walkway Shop quintana; bedroom floors, wood floors, install wood heating cover, wood or wooden decorative hanging mirror line line, through a long wooden Chuanglian, double wooden doors set package; the Canadian aluminum sliding sash windows, Balcony sealed aluminum windows, aluminum doors with windows for; lamp art lamp with a circular ceiling, change the pull switch. This standard of decoration items and decorative construction cost at current market value, calculated Shanghai take 2 million. kitchen equipment, cabinet with Update: Fire board to do with cabinets, hanging cabinets, marble countertops or stainless steel made, stainless steel wash basins and faucets; tank deep type range hoods, gas stoves and water heaters; electrical switches, sockets, wiring, lighting, transformation, Shanghai market price is currently estimated at more 8,000 yuan. bathroom equipment update: joint venture production of selected high-grade sanitary ware, wash basin plus marble countertops, toilet bowls, bathtubs, soap tanks, paper cylinder, stainless steel heads, faucets, towel racks , shower curtain rods and curtains, large mirrors or mirror boxes, wall lamps, exhaust fans, etc., according to the current market price estimates more Shanghai 7,000. all three together, to be around 3.5 million (excluding furniture and household appliances). ( to) cost estimation methods estimate the cost of home decoration there are two methods: 1. direct costs + (direct costs of X combined factor) = total cost of the direct costs include: materials, equipment, materials, freight and labor costs. city freight generally 1.5%, labor costs generally a-days about 30-50 yuan. combined factor include: profits, all kinds of construction fees, taxes, fees, usually around 20%. of which approximately 3.8% of taxes, management fees of about 7-10 % or so. if: direct costs of 2 million combined factor of 20%, the total cost = 20,000 + (20,000 X20%) = 24,000 yuan. The above calculation is the usual big company, the same material each priced at less than market guide price. This is for those who require high-end decorating is very important, if the 50 million total cost of the decoration, a difference of 1,2 percentage points that is spread on a million. but the general decor is using relatively simple methods, the total cost = materials + labor costs, therefore, have flexibility in practice, carefully calculated, must not be applied mechanically .2. single project labor and materials cost and the sum = total cost if: Paint the cost of materials plus labor costs 15 yuan per square meter, brushing the area to be 150 square meters, then the single wall construction project price is equivalent to 2250, the project will cost each individual calculated, and then added together, the sum is the total cost. the total cost of construction waste has been clearly and shipping costs included, do not be double counting. If the user provided materials or equipment shall be deducted from the corresponding materials of, or equipment. home decor cost estimation, commonly used method of labor and materials are more negotiable the price of a special decoration. The price agreed to by both parties after the contract can be signed decorated in the contract package to indicate the total cost of a death, such as a change, then do another by , cut off treatment. in the contract should specify the duration, quality, payment terms and warranty period, etc.. contract signed and sealed by both parties, effective immediately. then need to advance 30-50% of the total cost of the project preparation subsection, the balance may be paid in installments according to specific adaptation, can also be a lump sum after final acceptance. the time pressure test on water pressure test piping system pressure test is divided into strength and rigor of two-step pressure test, strength test pressure, cold water pipes and hot water pipes are in accordance with 1.5 and 2 times the maximum working pressure test pressure not less than 1 hour, the lowest pressure gauge in the system; leak test time is 2 hours, the maximum test pressure 1.15 times the working pressure. taking into account the characteristics of PP-R pipe, the minimum strength test pressure, cold water pipes shall not less than 1.0MPa, hot water pipe is not less than 1.5MPa. It should be noted: When the system pressure strength test, does not include water equipment, water nozzle, float valve, etc., when the pressure test connection with a metal insert parts, plastic plug can withstand the temporary closure. and pay attention to handling, do not apply excessive force to avoid damage threaded parts, resulting in junction leakage. tightness test, such as water faucets should be installed on all equipment to check the reliability of the whole system. 1, cold water pipe test pressure piping system shall be 1.5 times the working pressure, but not less than 1.0MPa. 2, test pressure hot water pipes, piping systems shall be 2.0 times the working pressure, but not less than 1.5MPa. 3, pipe pressure test shall meet the following requirements: (1) hot melt connection pipes, pressure test time should be after 24h; (2) before the pressure test, pipe should be fixed, connection shall be clearly exposed; (3) pipe filled with water, the first air exhaust pipe, check for water tightness; (4) hand pump pressure is appropriate, step-up time is not less than 10min, the pressure measurement accuracy of the instrument should be 0.01MPa; to the required test pressure, the regulator 1h, the test pressure drop should not exceed 0.06MPa; (5) 1.15 times the working pressure state, the regulator 2h, the pressure drop shall not exceed 0.03MPa, also check the connection may not leaking. Project internal cost control and internal control measures, is an enterprise in order to ensure the effective conduct of business activities and assets of the security and integrity , detect and correct errors and fraud, to ensure that accounting information is true, legitimate and complete so as to formulate and implement policies, measures and procedures. First, the internal control projects are the following points: 1, the cost of the project department is the control center, the Ministry of the object is the project costing the various individual project costs. project cost control, including cost projections, implementation, accounting, analysis, evaluation, collation and preparation of cost reports for cost information. Cost control according to the following procedures: (1) Ministry of Commerce Ministry project manager determines that the project cost plan; (2) prepared by the Department project manager, target cost; (3) project manager to implement target cost; (4) Ministry of Commerce Engineering Finance Department, Purchasing Department, Production Management Department of the validation of the project cost report to oversee the implementation of the target cost; (5) Project Manager, Production Management Department, Ministry of the contract budget, project finance department works on the feedback of assessment information, specific procedures are as follows: Ministry of contract engineering projects, according to project characteristics and construction design, preparation of labor, materials, machinery, cost plans, cost projections for the projects and the budget cost plans to the Ministry of testing for the record; the cost of the project department under the plan, the target cost project development costs, the financial department together with the contract business Department of Management Department to plan the production cost and target cost based on the cost of implementation of control. 2, to establish strict and effective internal control system of the project cost. internal control system should include three specific independent level control. The first level is the whole process of the project into the Ministry of mutual restraint, mutual restraint system, the establishment of case-based surveillance line of defense. The second level is the officer engaged in business, business processes must be clear authority and responsibilities, to general business or direct contact with the client's business, are to go through the review of all key business functions to sign and acknowledge the implementation of the system, professional positions should be equipped with strong sense of responsibility, ability to work full staff for the post, and include procedures, standardized management, will Regular monitoring of the process and the settlement of direct feedback to the person in charge of the financial sector. The third level is based on existing audits, audit, discipline inspection departments, based on the establishment of a direct leadership of the company and independent of the audit department of the audit team . The audit team through the regular internal audits, project audits, implementation reports, financial statements and other means of oversight review, the project implemented by the Ministry of internal control to establish an effective control system of the project took place against the economic operations, blocking, checking and Progressive supervision and control, for the timely detection of problems, prevent and resolve project risks and accounting department management risk, will have an important role. 3, Project Cost Control focuses on implementation. project cost control throughout the whole process of project construction, to be implemented sequentially one by one, the responsibility to the people, according to the prospectus for the system and efforts to catch the results. in the project cost control process focused mainly on the following : (1) to project the basic situation. decision-making and management through investigations to understand the tender of the project preparation. fixed cost fee of the standard, the price, the amount of major projects, construction site surroundings, access control on-site construction team of technical conditions, quality of personnel, equipment, energy, construction period and completion of required start time, ease of construction, the construction program to develop a scientific and effective construction methods. (2) decomposition of cost control targets, a high degree of attention to the major cost items. In construction, the main project is the construction cost of direct materials, it is generally in direct costs accounted for 60% or more, therefore, should attach great importance to the project cost control, it is the greatest potential for reducing the cost of cost control project. First of all, be controlled from the price. (3) the control of mechanical royalties. reasonably determine Jixietaiban fixed, the bicycle stand-alone accounting models and operators to implement the individual, so that advance estimates, the things in control, after assessment, to improve mechanical efficiency, over-complete sets for a fixed class workload, attention control machinery and equipment maintenance costs. (4) control the cost and on-site labor costs money. On the one hand grasp staffing, posts and quota, the project organization structure should be lean, efficient, minimizing labor costs and the actual winning wage gap. On the other hand pay attention to the control of indirect costs to keep a pen to approve funding system, in particular, control of hospitality, travel, office expenses, telephone charges, low rates consumption of consumables and other miscellaneous expenses. Second, the construction of the project the main measure of internal control. the internal control system requires the construction of the project manager as a project organizer, the full realization of project objectives primarily responsible for, the project manager, of course, the project cost control of the first responsible person. Cost control theory tells us: to achieve the project cost control objectives from the beginning to determine and realize the whole process of project implementation, so timely feedback of information to be within the project cost control process the key. occurred within the project cost Accounting information is achieved through the project. Therefore, it can be said that the project accounting is a means of project cost control, cost control, but costs are not reflected in the profile of the negative, it is a control of the factors affecting the cost of management, cost control is not an isolated functions, not the task of cost accounting responsible, but the common task of all participants. achievement of project cost control should primarily efforts in the following three aspects: 1, the establishment of cost accountability, and improve cost control operation mechanism (1). improve cost accountability. Cost control and economic responsibility system complement each other, cost control is to establish a sound internal economic responsibility system of the main conditions, and internal economic responsibility, to ensure that cost control is an important guarantee for effective implementation, the implementation of cost responsibility Project cost control key. (2) setting up the project cost control system. in the construction production process, in order to effectively control the cost of construction expenditures, to prevent loss and waste, the cost of construction should be an effective control system, respectively, . (3) increase awareness of full cost to implement cost-effective allocation of responsibility to guide and improve the awareness of the importance of full cost method. 2, the implementation cost of doing business factors on the whole process of control. (1) the cost of the project department should the project objectives decomposition, the implementation of the project cost at all levels of responsibility and reward and punishment approach, and the cost of the project objectives at all levels of responsibility for signing the contract, the cost of increased awareness of the project at all levels to mobilize the full participation in the project cost control. (2) strengthen labor and wage management, in particular to strengthen the management of the labor force. (3) to strengthen materials management, reducing material consumption. (4) to strengthen equipment management, improve the operability of equipment utilization and efficiency. (5) strengthening quality management. (6 ) reasonable set of project management organizations. (7) to strengthen project cost accounting, cost analysis in time to implement cost improvement measures to the cost control within the target cost for the enterprises to create more efficiency. Zhuantie decoration Notes users 1.: Do not be the first shoe of the partition, leaving a little space so that the shoes can leak into the bottom ash, sink and gas stove top mounted lights. given the location of the bathroom floor drain must first think well, a good amount of size. to drain the best side in the brick, if the bricks in the middle of it, no matter how kind of tilted blocks, floor drain will not be the lowest point. 3SX1 | 2. bathroom, no air-conditioning outlet design switches. especially the bathroom water heater to a pair of class switch with a plug appropriate. as to be locked to the electric, pull the plug dangerous ^ 3. Yang angle on the brick part of the treatment, the final analysis is to look at the level of the workers. if the level of good workers, plasterers, and tile mill better tools, they should not hesitate to choose the practice of grinding a 45 degree angle. In effect, as long as a good grinding, grinding angle of 45 degrees in the positive approach is the most beautiful! If the level of the workers did not very like, you still choose to be positive angle, because the bad grinding practices not as good as 45 degrees angle with the positive effect of Article G> 4. line up the pipes after the water pressure test is also very important. test, we must be present, and the test for at least 30 minutes or more, conditions permitting, the best .10 kg of pressure for an hour, and finally be tested without any reduction. Wn5. steel doors must be considered a good time steel door frames protruding walls of the size, notify the installer, making the final frame and had finished the wall tiles are flat, so not only beautiful, and good health to do. # 6. carpentry and masonry of the package tiling Door is to tie in, including door pocket of the time, to consider the following ground (the ground side of the door either side) is also affixed to ceramic tiles or other cement mortar thing, because if you stick tiles before Mentao stapled, has packets to the ground, with cement when the future, if the cement and Door stained, moldy water will cause wood Door I7. mattresses and the mattress must be below the air. mattress is best for general use cedar board oz `40. Do not use too much toilet tiles prime, one easily dirty, and second, a long time, too dull! gJm how to choose fabric accessories? how to choose fabric accessories? reasonable choice and design of the curtain, so that graced your living room, full of reflects the level of the host culture, artistic culture and delight of life, bring to life the romance and fun. To help you create a warm, comfortable home, especially to provide the following for your reference. cloth - the soul of the family cloth is decorated in the in a different fabric, pattern, color combination and style, creating room environment, expensive luxury mansion is paying back the principal and a huge decorated, where you can appreciate the importance of home. However, the lack of investment in fabric choice, it can not be luxury radiate relatively atmosphere will make you disappointed. want to show the personality living environment, hobbies, but on the other decorations do not want to pay too much input, so this idea by us, do not bother, will eventually be to your satisfaction. lived for many years the home, can not stimulate new ideas, to change the original style, it will waste a lot of well-decorated, the time allowed, as long as the indoor furniture, curtains and fabric relative to the fabric slightly changed, not the day effort, a new renewed vigor to your daily mood. cloth curtain effect, negative relationship between the moldings the net effect of fabric curtains and window boxes and decoration installation methods moldings have a direct negative relationship, so installation window box, shade moldings please talk with professionals to achieve the best results the curtain. the success of the design of curtain fabric need specialized colors of the room, the atmosphere and the whole style of regulation has a pivotal role in the success of curtains can make the ordinary dramatic changes in the room, so we recommend that: first, the choice of curtains depends on the texture needs to light the room light, to light the room is not very strict requirements, select the plain cotton material can be printed. The room need plenty of light, choose the chiffon texture , thin cotton or silk the more appropriate. Instead, use curtains block the sun or the application of thicker wool blend satin woven cotton to do curtains, lined with tulle effect will be better. Second, the color of the curtains, design should be based on personal preferences and room's main colors, depending on room decoration in the main color is very important. classical home decoration, coupled with heavy fabrics, lace color steady floor, giving the feeling of a very decent, and avant-garde The family will need simple, smooth, less dressed curtains design, small windows for the simple Roman blinds hanging style, large windows visual focus, suitable for hanging a variety of styles, exquisite fancy curtains. price factor 1 fabric texture, composition; 2, textile technology; 3, aesthetic level; 4, the color of the epidemic; 5, window fittings different texture; 6 different origin; curtain ------ new features curtain cloth curtain is compelling non-party fabric, delicate and rich to become public and the curtain is to demonstrate the real cloth curtain under the charm of hydrocarbons in their speech development is the process of becoming mature, has formed a variety of fine seven wave analysis, and elegant patterns. but curtain main consideration for the choice of curtain fabric Wilson is the flower type, personal preferences and the home environment. cloth cloth Rui effect on natural light through the curtains into the room, the effect of exposure to the selection of fabric has a crucial role , south and the west windows are vulnerable to sunlight, north and east there are more dark room, the other will cause different colors in different psychological feeling. If you want to make the room becomes warm, choose warmer colors, such as Large red, pink, yellow, brown, sunset red, orange and so on, so the room can change the south west of the cool and calm. cotton fabric feels fine and feel of new flowers, plain woven materials moving, especially people living in the city from the countryside between the honor to the relaxed and minimalist. Thick linen, cotton blended texture has a strong effect of latitude and longitude, feel comfortable, warm and real. weave different cloth itself will charm. In general, public organization for a large fabric flowers made the overall large-scale suspension; and then woven together with a small plutonium printing, such as a hanging tassel tassels which seems fine so wonderful, mixed weave of the cloth, put forward Another popular form of cross people's fabric type. pipeline renovation project of the construction process (Zhuantie) a) construction process management through pre-drilled holes in pipe scale cutting �� �� �� pipe nozzle sets of silk Road, installation of embedded parts of the holder pre-installed embedded �� �� �� Check the official connection installed. (b) Construction of the connection pipe to resolution commonly used threaded connections. first line should be modified according to design requirements, in the wall mark the center hole through the wall, with crossing lines marked on the wall, and with the impact of drilling holes holes, holes in the center line should be consistent with the centerline of a pipeline through the wall, holes should be played straight. nozzle sets of silk Quality is the key to ensure the installation, to prevent sets of silk twill appear. pipe installation, the tube should be clean, so clean and no debris inside. installation, pay attention to the interface quality, identify the location of the shakes and towards the pipe to ensure that all water connections installed equipment in the correct position. pipeline installed should be clean pipe, anti-corrosion coating, after brushing, brushing silver paste. (c) of the galvanized pipe laying installation method (1) Concealed pipes embedded in the wall when the slot depth and width of the wall should be not less than pipe diameter plus 20mm, the back wall of pipeline pressure test is applied 1:3 cement mortar to fill the slot density. (2) Concealed pipes in the floor or on the lifting surface top, the pressure test should be in well concealed work after recording. (3) a single surface mounted cold water pipe from the wall surface should be 15 ~ 20mm, up and down parallel to the hot and cold water in the cold water the next; level parallel to the hot and cold water, hot water pipe cold water pipe in the file should be. (4) wall surface mounted hot water pipes should be set through the casing, the casing wall at both ends should be flat. (5) hot water pipe through the floor should be provided with steel casing, the casing above the top 50mm, bottom and flat bottom plate, the casing pipe should be more than two steps, and waterproofing. (6) of the nipple and equipment by the outlet location should be correct. (7) to install hot and cold taps for sanitary appliances, the hot water tap should be installed for the left. (8) should be used galvanized pipe threaded connections, pipe thread should be structured, if broken wires or missing wire, not screw all debit greater than 10%. connector should be exposed 2 to 3 after the deduction of the remaining threads, damaged galvanized coating exposed part of the surface and pipe threads should be embalmed. (9) residential indoor water supply pipes installed tomorrow diameter generally in the (15 ~ 20) between. on the water supply pipe fixed tube card installed, the location should be uniform, neat appearance, not arbitrary, blindness, according to Shanghai with the relevant provisions, (20 and below the fixed water supply pipe control card set position should be around the corner, a small water meters, valves and pipe taps or triangular at the end of the 100mm. (10) Most operators in the fixed location of pipe to be punched cards are to use the impact drill. using impact drills punched card installation pipe generally should note the following .1) with the best installation is the choice of the management card expansion screws .2) drill pipe size should be appropriate to the diameter of the card holder can not be too large or too small, the depth of generally not less than 60mm. tube card to open holes in the foot after parts should be buried in cement mortar around the stuffing tube cards, and then stuffed with small stones and beating close, and finally smoothed with cement mortar around .3) is strictly prohibited inserted into holes in the wood samples fixed tube card .4) shall not use a fixed mixed mortar tube cards. (11) Pipeline installation is complete, the hidden pressure test should be carried out before the test methods with the former plastic water supply pipes. test level not less than 0.6MPa. (12) water supply pipeline system through the inspection should be carried out before the water. rinse should not stay dead, each of the leading water distribution point should be opened, the system should set the lowest point of the drain, cleaning time control in irrigation drainage outlet water quality and water very far. (d) the laying of plastic water supply pipe installation essentials (1) Concealed pipes embedded in the wall when the slot depth and width of the wall should not be less than the pipe diameter plus 20mm, and the tank may not have room flat tip protrusion angle, pipe pressure test after passing trough the wall to fill the dense application of cement mortar 1:2. (2) Concealed pipes in the floor or suspended within the flat surface in the pressure test should be well hidden after the project Acceptance of recording. (3) through the wall surface mounted hot water pipes, should be provided with steel casing, the casing and the wall should be flat at both ends; cold water pipe through the wall, they can set aside hole through the pipe outside diameter than the hole size Large 50mm. (4) end pipes and fittings connected edges and burrs should be removed, must be clean, dry and free of oil. (5) Pipeline installation and requirements must be set according to different diameter pipes card or hanger, the location should be correct , to be laid flat, tube and pipeline access card should be close, but not damage the surface management. (6) card or a metal pipe hanger, the metal tube between the card and the pipe with plastic or rubber septum and other soft materials. ( 7) stand pipe and horizontal pipe hanger spacing shall not exceed the requirements in the table below. Table 1, the largest cold water pipe hanger distance (mm) nominal diameter De 20 25 32 40 50 63 horizontal tube 650 80095011001250 1400 Riser 1000 1,200,150,017,001,800 2000 Table 2, the largest hot water pipe hanger spacing (mm) nominal diameter De 20 25 32 40 50 63 horizontal tube 5,006,007,008,009,001,000 riser 9,001,000,120,014,001,600 1700 contracting, including material which is good home improvement company - contracting, including material which is good one, contracting not-included. user owned a variety of decorative materials, decorative materials the company only in the arch construction. Second, the contract for labor and materials. user-owned major decorative materials such as brick , paint, tile, wallpaper, wood flooring, sanitary ware and so on. decoration company responsible for construction and decoration supporting material procurement, such as cement, lime, sand, stone tablets and so on. Third, the contract for labor and all materials. decoration company by user proposed decorative design and requirements, all construction contractors and engineering tasks decorative materials used in the procurement. by way of contracting not-included the disadvantages are: the user on the material texture, uses poorly understood, easy to buy Zhicijiagao material; the purchase of a small amount of material stores offer not enjoy the wholesale price, and high transport costs; Once the engineering quality problems, the responsibility not to distinguish; workers in the construction of highly wasteful; leftover waste materials to a certain extent. by contracting and materials of the way, the premise is based on the full decoration company based on trust, so that users can worry less for home decoration. To this end, entrusted to the high reputation turnkey decoration company is a good idea. Users should be selected high level of transparency formal decoration company. what materials to buy much in price must be stated in the contract. to prevent the company shoddy. to solve common problems paint interior paint is an important part, prone to a number of difficult issues, people what to do. In fact, as long as the place to find out the real cause of the problem, prescribe the right medicine is not difficult to have satisfactory results, the following is easy to produce for the paint problem, the proposed solution, so you can be more handy when interior decorating. paint peeling may be the reason the surface is too smooth. If the original paint is bright or matte paint (plus raw paste paint), new paint on the surface is not strong on the stick. or may be rotten wood or metal with rust spots , but also because of poor quality and peeling paint. a small area of paint peeling off, can be polished with fine sandpaper, then putty is applied, brush on the primer, re-painting. a large area of peeling paint must be scraped all, re-brushing. paint blistering First, the bubble burst, if the water emitting from the paint that shows infiltration of moisture under or behind, the sun drying, the moisture evaporates into steam, it will play into the bubble to the top of patent leather. At this point, first with the hot air gun to remove bubbles in the paint, let the wood dry naturally, then brush on the primer, and finally re-painting the entire patch surface. If the bubbles in the water, it could be wood cracking, the a small amount of air, the sun drying, air expansion, patent leather to muster. Faced with this situation, first scrape paint from blistering, and then fill the crack filler resin, re-paint, or do not fill in the scratch to patent leather, direct coated microporous paint. Most of the cracks to use this chemical paint remover or a hot air gun to remove paint, then re-painting. If the range is not broken, then sanding block or can be wet and dry sand paper wet, broken paint rubbed off, polished smooth surface after the putty is applied, brush on the primer, and re-painting. paint a paint brush too thick flows that can cause flow. can take advantage of paint has not dried, brush the paint brush to open, if the paint has begun to dry, will have to wait for dry, use fine sandpaper to smooth polished finish, brush the surface clean, then wipe with a damp cloth, then the outer paint, be careful not to brush too thick. Wuban paint surface Wuban many reasons. For example: paint the walls of water melted the paint material and rust, steel wool grazed the wall will have rust, Wuban underground pipe wall leakage occurs and so on. To prevent Wuban, can first brush a layer of aluminum powder primer, Ruoyi there Wuban, they may first remove the blotch at the paint, brush the bottom layer of aluminum powder paint, then re-painting. moldy color this problem occurred in the wet paint surface, such as water vapor condenses on the glass or metal surfaces often produce brown-black blotch. fungicide available at this time, according to the instructions manual handling moldy The site, to be killed after the mold, clean the surface, and then re-painting. The reason is not the dull primer, or primer and paint was dry on the inner light directly on the paint, the result is bright paint wood absorb and lose luster. bright paint is also a cause of poor quality. with wet and dry sandpaper to wear off the old paint brush to polish the dust, wipe the surface with a clean damp cloth until dry, then re- brush on the finish. to note that the low temperature environment in the painting, dry film, may also lose their luster. wrinkling is usually due to first pass coating paint was dry on the brush caused the second time The. Then lower the solvent will affect the paint in the upper film to make it wrinkle. This situation can be chemical agents or heating mercury removal remove wrinkles of the film, re-painting. Remember, we must first pass paint, etc. dry, only the second time. ... rough finish
Sunday, December 26, 2010
To the oligarchy of radicalization and the key to China's reform - Jieduan King - Focus blog
Huang Dachuan: to radicalization and oligarchy is the key to the reform of (turn) <> Article: San
three of luck too, only to China's reform and suppress the radical oligarchs of <> in China From 1978 to this year's reform and opening up policy three decades has been the whole, these three years of rapid economic development both in China, there are many problems, how to look at the process of China's reform achievements and problems? If I have mentioned with the previous conservative and radical community will be presented in the historical experience of the general law to find out some clues of .1978 years ago is a standard radical social reform and opening up the essence is to reverse the process of radical social, though In the three years of Chinese society there are still many radical elements, but an open society, inclusive, of the conservative nature of traditional culture, as well as civilians, the free market economy, the implementation of selective (although our market is far from perfect) These distinctive characteristics of a society which have substantially increased, which is the root cause of social reform and the driving force for progress. how should we look at three decades of reform appears to be the problem? is actually caused by two aspects, first, the old problems, reform Some do not adapt to the process of the old radical conservative elements of social existence, which is the legacy of previous social problems have not resolved; the second is a new problem is a common problem of social conservative issues, namely the firms with negative effects in society have not been effectively curb. In the great debate of reform, there are two views one can only see the negative effects of oligarchs preferred to return to the planned economy era, and second, only to see the shortcomings of the neglect of former oligarchs society has not been effectively curbed hazards, I think these two views are not comprehensive enough to solve China's current problems can only be from two aspects, one is to maintain the conservative state of society continue to remove the radical elements in society that not only walked back walk, the second is the effective curb the oligarchs and curb not kill, should improve the rules of the game from the start, so that the civilian population and the elite can be balanced in a state of relatively fair game. My view is conservative liberal tendencies, but they do not agree to be called as only the strong stronger the weak weaker, it is the way to the economic crisis, social crisis or the risk of the road. At the same time, it should be noted that we can not go back can not go past the elite tried to stifle the road, and that dangerous. continue to advance the cause of China's reform and the key will only be two-pronged approach while addressing the new and old contradictions, not only going to radicalization, but also to prevent the conservative society of the elite extreme. proverb, death, a place on the chaos may ensure the of the formation is the key. to study the well-known social justice and well-known scholar John Rawls view of China's reform policy worthy of the designer should learn from Rawls that They have the fewest rights, opportunities, income and wealth, social inequality, embodied most strongly in them. a just social system should be through a variety of institutional arrangements to improve the 'most disadvantaged' position, increase their hope to narrow their gap with others. Thus, if a social arrangement for some reason have some kind of inequality, then it only helps to maximize the interests of the most disadvantaged groups, it order is just. begin to explore in-depth reform of China's some directional issues. <> China is a large agricultural country, with many of the rural population, many of China's history of social turmoil in the process of events is closely with the farmers before the land clearance, land China's social stability issues are also a decisive factor in whether or not the Land of the contract .1978 become an opportunity to start reform, reform of the beginning of the lowest class of farmers originally really benefited from the income of farmers increased substantially. a sweet period the gradual exposure of rural issues and has become increasingly prominent, the land issue has become the most unstable rural society as a whole one of the factors. First, the grassroots government Also free is the national agricultural subsidies to farmers. rural arbitrary collection of fees from the main contradiction of the farmers have shifted to the right to use land expropriation, to grassroots level on behalf of the Government or the collective use of force at very low prices farmers received land use rights, and then investment or re-construction of high-priced resale house property sale profits to the city residents. the law does not empower the farmers can not sell land use rights only the rights of farmers when land acquisition is almost no way. This approach social harm is obvious, for countries, agricultural land is a lot of development, the country's food security can not be effectively protected. For the peasants, there is no land, there is no all, many people have become a society ; blind Many people suggested that the ownership of the land to the peasants, the farmers themselves have the right not to sell land to farmers to solve the illegal acquisition of land for private levy issue. This is a fundamental solution, but there are other complementary measures must be introduced at the same time, otherwise it may bring other equally dangerous to other social problems. In Chinese history, if the land is privately owned property, when a society of farmers of various tax burden too heavy too high, farmers will have no benefit farming to be made, the lower middle class farmers to sell their land can only be willing to pay for the land of the landlord or the bureaucracy, the end result of the annexation of land is a large number of landless peasants form a real problem is that the ownership of the land to the peasants, be sure to use legislation to strictly land use, agricultural land is not free to the construction of agricultural land or commercial residential zone, and then have to increase agricultural subsidies, and enable the farmers farming profitable, but also through preferential policies to encourage farmers to the desert wasteland and grass planting. You can also encourage farmers to consider a voluntary basis according to their land shares, that is, job opportunities for farmers and allow farmers to use land shares dividends, engage in agricultural enterprises group operation (also strict land-use purpose, if the operation of agricultural enterprises can not be satisfied to allow the peasants farmers in a certain period of voluntary divestment). resolve the land question is actually a farmer as previously mentioned in the conservative principle, to prevent radical of (not recycled land, but also the ownership of land to the peasants), put an end to oligarchy of (prevention of land a large number of mergers) two-pronged approach, which is commonly used in today's civilized country agricultural policies, can be for our use. <> contract law serious social conflicts pressure increases; Labor and Social Security to strengthen the business overwhelmed, resulting in a large number of foreign bankruptcy or withdrawal of China, will increase unemployment and social instability will therefore also increase. caused this dilemma can only be that our economic structure is extremely unreasonable, after all, developed countries than foreign or even not as good as our country's labor welfare state are better than China, is increasingly integrated into the world economy of China in the process of gradual integration with the international , the labor system, which is an integral part of integration. To solve this problem can only start from two aspects, namely enhancing the sense of innovation of Chinese enterprises, we can not always rely on imitation of others, and low-cost labor advantage to international competition, innovation is the soul of social development, but also have access to high-yield business the best way to rules of the game of international economic integration is also possible to protect this innovation, this is the final solution to the plight of the most important factor of labor. But innovation requires a relaxed atmosphere and environment of academic freedom, innovation is a key factor in the human factor can not be separated, ten trees takes a hundred years, can not be bound to that solution can only thirst of distant water. the immediate plight of labor can only start from changing the economic structure, more of our labor rights as the game between employers and employees, in fact, there is an important addition to the labor market in which the body plays an important role, that is, government, employers and labor compared to the strong, but the government is weak compared to many of the government in the interests of employers and employees are stakeholders in the game, every year China's GDP accounted for the proportion of total tax revenue increased year by year, the Government should give up some benefits to both employers and employees to enable them to better coordination between each other. In its present form, the Chinese government not only to reduce administrative costs but also improve administrative efficiency, it is necessary to reduce the tax revenue of dividends but also efforts to increase social welfare spending and use efficiency, which must not be lost is a difficult task must be completed .<><> Conclusion: This article is almost no mention of an important concept that people often talks about - The concept has been mentioned but'd easily lead to ambiguity, such as a democratic people will mention that tyranny of the majority, the minority subordinate to the majority of people, that most people through the 'democratic process' to deprive the minority of property and even lives up democracy ? Although you can say that democracy is the majority to the minority to obey, and do not forget the other people should respect the principle of majority minority. no one has the right words to explain the hegemony language, some people say that tyranny of the majority is one of the forms of democracy, who also no way. In order to minimize the concept of ambiguity, instead of democracy is . On the other hand, we seem to know there are errors of democracy, democracy should not be an end, but means a kind of social development to help us better means. to say the least, is the re-authoritarian society has said before democratic alternative to the composition of words, but the ingredients are big or small, can not achieve a satisfactory level won `t be a different story. Since my thoughts since becoming a conservative, but also often think about democracy, the other topic, including my former Many people often say, including , if you can recognize and suppress the radical oligarchs to the importance and necessity of democracy (or a democracy, I mentioned that place beyond words) as a means of nature will be applied to the problems dealt with.
three of luck too, only to China's reform and suppress the radical oligarchs of <> in China From 1978 to this year's reform and opening up policy three decades has been the whole, these three years of rapid economic development both in China, there are many problems, how to look at the process of China's reform achievements and problems? If I have mentioned with the previous conservative and radical community will be presented in the historical experience of the general law to find out some clues of .1978 years ago is a standard radical social reform and opening up the essence is to reverse the process of radical social, though In the three years of Chinese society there are still many radical elements, but an open society, inclusive, of the conservative nature of traditional culture, as well as civilians, the free market economy, the implementation of selective (although our market is far from perfect) These distinctive characteristics of a society which have substantially increased, which is the root cause of social reform and the driving force for progress. how should we look at three decades of reform appears to be the problem? is actually caused by two aspects, first, the old problems, reform Some do not adapt to the process of the old radical conservative elements of social existence, which is the legacy of previous social problems have not resolved; the second is a new problem is a common problem of social conservative issues, namely the firms with negative effects in society have not been effectively curb. In the great debate of reform, there are two views one can only see the negative effects of oligarchs preferred to return to the planned economy era, and second, only to see the shortcomings of the neglect of former oligarchs society has not been effectively curbed hazards, I think these two views are not comprehensive enough to solve China's current problems can only be from two aspects, one is to maintain the conservative state of society continue to remove the radical elements in society that not only walked back walk, the second is the effective curb the oligarchs and curb not kill, should improve the rules of the game from the start, so that the civilian population and the elite can be balanced in a state of relatively fair game. My view is conservative liberal tendencies, but they do not agree to be called as only the strong stronger the weak weaker, it is the way to the economic crisis, social crisis or the risk of the road. At the same time, it should be noted that we can not go back can not go past the elite tried to stifle the road, and that dangerous. continue to advance the cause of China's reform and the key will only be two-pronged approach while addressing the new and old contradictions, not only going to radicalization, but also to prevent the conservative society of the elite extreme. proverb, death, a place on the chaos may ensure the of the formation is the key. to study the well-known social justice and well-known scholar John Rawls view of China's reform policy worthy of the designer should learn from Rawls that They have the fewest rights, opportunities, income and wealth, social inequality, embodied most strongly in them. a just social system should be through a variety of institutional arrangements to improve the 'most disadvantaged' position, increase their hope to narrow their gap with others. Thus, if a social arrangement for some reason have some kind of inequality, then it only helps to maximize the interests of the most disadvantaged groups, it order is just. begin to explore in-depth reform of China's some directional issues. <> China is a large agricultural country, with many of the rural population, many of China's history of social turmoil in the process of events is closely with the farmers before the land clearance, land China's social stability issues are also a decisive factor in whether or not the Land of the contract .1978 become an opportunity to start reform, reform of the beginning of the lowest class of farmers originally really benefited from the income of farmers increased substantially. a sweet period the gradual exposure of rural issues and has become increasingly prominent, the land issue has become the most unstable rural society as a whole one of the factors. First, the grassroots government Also free is the national agricultural subsidies to farmers. rural arbitrary collection of fees from the main contradiction of the farmers have shifted to the right to use land expropriation, to grassroots level on behalf of the Government or the collective use of force at very low prices farmers received land use rights, and then investment or re-construction of high-priced resale house property sale profits to the city residents. the law does not empower the farmers can not sell land use rights only the rights of farmers when land acquisition is almost no way. This approach social harm is obvious, for countries, agricultural land is a lot of development, the country's food security can not be effectively protected. For the peasants, there is no land, there is no all, many people have become a society ; blind Many people suggested that the ownership of the land to the peasants, the farmers themselves have the right not to sell land to farmers to solve the illegal acquisition of land for private levy issue. This is a fundamental solution, but there are other complementary measures must be introduced at the same time, otherwise it may bring other equally dangerous to other social problems. In Chinese history, if the land is privately owned property, when a society of farmers of various tax burden too heavy too high, farmers will have no benefit farming to be made, the lower middle class farmers to sell their land can only be willing to pay for the land of the landlord or the bureaucracy, the end result of the annexation of land is a large number of landless peasants form a real problem is that the ownership of the land to the peasants, be sure to use legislation to strictly land use, agricultural land is not free to the construction of agricultural land or commercial residential zone, and then have to increase agricultural subsidies, and enable the farmers farming profitable, but also through preferential policies to encourage farmers to the desert wasteland and grass planting. You can also encourage farmers to consider a voluntary basis according to their land shares, that is, job opportunities for farmers and allow farmers to use land shares dividends, engage in agricultural enterprises group operation (also strict land-use purpose, if the operation of agricultural enterprises can not be satisfied to allow the peasants farmers in a certain period of voluntary divestment). resolve the land question is actually a farmer as previously mentioned in the conservative principle, to prevent radical of (not recycled land, but also the ownership of land to the peasants), put an end to oligarchy of (prevention of land a large number of mergers) two-pronged approach, which is commonly used in today's civilized country agricultural policies, can be for our use. <> contract law serious social conflicts pressure increases; Labor and Social Security to strengthen the business overwhelmed, resulting in a large number of foreign bankruptcy or withdrawal of China, will increase unemployment and social instability will therefore also increase. caused this dilemma can only be that our economic structure is extremely unreasonable, after all, developed countries than foreign or even not as good as our country's labor welfare state are better than China, is increasingly integrated into the world economy of China in the process of gradual integration with the international , the labor system, which is an integral part of integration. To solve this problem can only start from two aspects, namely enhancing the sense of innovation of Chinese enterprises, we can not always rely on imitation of others, and low-cost labor advantage to international competition, innovation is the soul of social development, but also have access to high-yield business the best way to rules of the game of international economic integration is also possible to protect this innovation, this is the final solution to the plight of the most important factor of labor. But innovation requires a relaxed atmosphere and environment of academic freedom, innovation is a key factor in the human factor can not be separated, ten trees takes a hundred years, can not be bound to that solution can only thirst of distant water. the immediate plight of labor can only start from changing the economic structure, more of our labor rights as the game between employers and employees, in fact, there is an important addition to the labor market in which the body plays an important role, that is, government, employers and labor compared to the strong, but the government is weak compared to many of the government in the interests of employers and employees are stakeholders in the game, every year China's GDP accounted for the proportion of total tax revenue increased year by year, the Government should give up some benefits to both employers and employees to enable them to better coordination between each other. In its present form, the Chinese government not only to reduce administrative costs but also improve administrative efficiency, it is necessary to reduce the tax revenue of dividends but also efforts to increase social welfare spending and use efficiency, which must not be lost is a difficult task must be completed .<><> Conclusion: This article is almost no mention of an important concept that people often talks about - The concept has been mentioned but'd easily lead to ambiguity, such as a democratic people will mention that tyranny of the majority, the minority subordinate to the majority of people, that most people through the 'democratic process' to deprive the minority of property and even lives up democracy ? Although you can say that democracy is the majority to the minority to obey, and do not forget the other people should respect the principle of majority minority. no one has the right words to explain the hegemony language, some people say that tyranny of the majority is one of the forms of democracy, who also no way. In order to minimize the concept of ambiguity, instead of democracy is . On the other hand, we seem to know there are errors of democracy, democracy should not be an end, but means a kind of social development to help us better means. to say the least, is the re-authoritarian society has said before democratic alternative to the composition of words, but the ingredients are big or small, can not achieve a satisfactory level won `t be a different story. Since my thoughts since becoming a conservative, but also often think about democracy, the other topic, including my former Many people often say, including , if you can recognize and suppress the radical oligarchs to the importance and necessity of democracy (or a democracy, I mentioned that place beyond words) as a means of nature will be applied to the problems dealt with.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Picture four school renovation renovation of the three --- spare time outside of (second-hand top of the hill housing decoration, ...
Is also a tough weekend. Acquaintance recommended the foreman went to the field, not back. Maybe it is a test of my endurance. Decoration design the company's small Y, or suggested that I use the company, the benefits, such as my heart der, but the price is somewhat difficult to endure. So it such and such, choose the decoration worst, go to the expense of quality in exchange for preferential prices. Driven to despair, from cash-strapped. last night I do not know where to buy 500 lottery million, palpitation of death, trembling hands clutching a lottery ticket, and my heart kept the prayer, this is not a dream, this is definitely not a dream. can be forced open the eyelids or the ruthless, and the surrounding darkness. Despite the money, but still remind ourselves that the renovation must be happy, do not make life difficult for the Hom, not to do is impossible, as long as you find happiness with a heart of hearts, Man proposes, God disposes. enjoy the process, the results fall into place. afternoon to find a small company Y, and talk, do not know the budget can no longer be reduced to some. this weekend morning, cloudy in the morning, a hazy fog in the early autumn, and had planned to Badachu, get some fresh air, worship Buddha, seeking a color head, back into the heart of the decoration, because LP did not take place overtime. her spare time, look at pictures of the past, made a few up, adjust the regulating mood, the decoration is hard to trouble, when once again to travel. is I do not know whether the hair right here. may be left to the Summer Palace in May, can not remember, just remember the day that, as today, a little cloudy, a little fog. Suzhou Street Tap Seac my wall (solid) door she Pai Yundian Stone Bridge at the end of Xiaokan children spend the year, no debt, and now into the house slaves, money and less time. day mixed in loading large, constantly calculating overhead, they do save a lot. free to take a look at the past, take a relaxed, continue to on the road. fitting the broad road, waiting for any ride that I .
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Feel the pulse of China's future economic growth Weiying
Weiying: feel the pulse of China's future economic growth
Weiying (Dean of Guanghua School of Management)
each person's life or career, a peak is also low. It is easy to over-pessimistic at low tide, the peak has often carried away. A country or society as well. Today's world economy, at a relatively low stage, the impact of the global financial crisis has not been eliminated. how to view the future of China and the world economy? best put it in a longer historical perspective. < br> populous country will return to the economic power
recorded history of mankind is five thousand years. According to economic historian Angus. Madison research in the history of mankind for a long time, countries (regions) Population size and economies of scale highly correlated; or that the size of the population decided to economies of scale. Population size and economies of scale separation between the last 200 years occurred. measured by GDP per capita over the past little difference between countries, such as AD 1500, richest countries per capita GDP is 3 times of the poorest countries; and now, a few developed countries like the United States and per capita GDP, is a backward country several times, or even a hundred times.
Madison-based data, can calculate the size of the population and correlation coefficient of economies of scale in the year 1500 for the 0.9972,1700 0.964,1820 still as high as 0.9423 in, but then declined sharply: in 1870 for the 0.3404,1950 years 0.6393,1913 0.1554, 1973, 0.148mm That is, until 1973 when the population size has nothing to do with economies of scale, such as 54.6% of the world population in Asia (excluding Japan), GDP accounted for only 16.4% of the world; and 18.4 of the world population % of the developed countries, GDP accounted for 58.7% of the world. This situation in the past began to reverse 30 years: Population size and economies of scale in the correlation coefficient increased to 0.5185 in 2003, is expected to rise further in 2030 to 0.733.
the size of population and GDP correlation coefficient (1000-2003)
why the past 250 years, GDP per capita gap between countries, economies of scale and the approximate size of the population no longer have reciprocity? simply because different different countries embarked on the road system, the first mm in some countries embarked on the road of market economy, and some countries do not. Although there are various debates on the details, but modern economic theory and social practice has shown that market economy is economic development and the most effective means to improve people's livelihood. If the economic system is no longer whether or not the difference between the market economy, that the world market economy, differences in per capita GDP will gradually disappear. This is what happened in the past 30 years . China's market reforms and other countries began to reverse the past 200 years, the worldwide emergence of population size and divergence between the economies of scale.
So, I have a bold speculation, according to current trends, the next 50 years , 100 years later, humans may then return to the 19th century the state before, that a country's economic size and population of similar size, large population but also economic power. today's world, except China, India, the largest population, the Asian population of the world for nearly 60 %. The so-called 21st century is the century of Asia, which is the relationship between population size and economic scale of the return, or is Adam. Smith's 1776 This trend can be seen now.
major economies of the world GDP, GDP (Click to see a larger clear)
Madison on the map is the estimated proportion. Broadly speaking, in accordance with the purchasing power parity calculation, Year 0 in the Western Han Dynasty, India's GDP of the world the proportion of 1 / 3, to 1820, China's GDP of the world's 1 / 3, to the World War II after 1950, the U.S. GDP of the world 1 / Top 4 (27.3%).'s future status will be like? He speculated that the year 2030, which is another 20 years, China's GDP may reach 23% of the world's total, 10% in India, the United States 17% Western Europe, amount to about 13% of the world.
from, you can see China's changes over the past 30 years. a country's international weight and the right to speak, depends on its economic strength. In recent years, the world China really can not do without, whether good or bad, people do not take you originally play, G7, G8, OECD, etc., are not the Chinese copies; now you gotta do is talk, you have to take . This is in the current financial crisis is most evident.
the most crucial changes: First, from the mainly rely on exports to drive growth in the domestic and foreign markets are more balanced growth; second is from the low-cost, low-cost resources, cheap labor support growth, innovation-based, higher value-added type of growth; third is the natural mode of growth from the enterprise, integrated into industry growth. The progress of these changes, but also depends on China's reform, including economic reform and political reform. Globalization is the background of these changes. < br> globalization on the world and the Chinese economy
economic globalization is a long historical process. upsurge of globalization occurred in the first 1870 to more than 40 years between 1913, the World War I began to 1950 is the Although non-belligerent trade is increasing. In 1929, the popular trade protectionism, coupled with the impact of World War II to 1950, world exports-GDP dropped to 5.5%, only 0.9 more than 1870 high- percentage points (see below).
major economies around the world and of its GDP, the value of merchandise exports (Click to see larger image clarity)
1950 years later, a new wave of globalization, especially after the 1980s, globalization further accelerate the wave of .2007, the average world GDP, exports accounted for 25.6%. Equally important, this way of globalization has also undergone a huge change, that is, trade in products from the simple to the division of the global value chain . it's you produce apples, peaches I produce, you sell me the apple, I put the peaches to sell you that someone special nursery, some special fertilizer, was specifically picked more detailed division of labor. The point is not the final product between trade, but the value chain of trade between different regions; the value chain to make a link edge, companies can succeed. This is a feature of current globalization.
globalization changed the world economic and political structure. If the first globalization, China is the biggest victim, then this time of globalization, China is the biggest beneficiary mm although overall, countries are the beneficiaries of globalization. Without this globalization, the Chinese economy can not maintain 30 years of rapid growth, China's international status would not be present. The globalization of production of every aspect of separated, non-integrated production process, to achieve the economic growth of countries in the world, China is seizing the opportunity to become the manufacturing superpower .100 100 years ago after years of globalization and the globalization of the fate of the Chinese had the opposite effect. < br> 2008 financial crisis since the 1929 crisis will not repeat the mistakes to globalization? my personal judgments, the export share of total GDP growth will stagnate or even decline, but not large-scale regression. last time lesson has taught us that trade protection is not a solution to the problem. the United States in 1931 published the Most of the trade protection policies, some people are fighting under the banner of the name of national self-interest. This is the revelation of the financial crisis. If the world and then to impose trade protection policy, we stay in recession longer, rather than the more short.
export-driven economic growth in China is no longer sustainable
in the past 30 years, most years, China's international trade growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate. Generally speaking, China's actual GDP annual growth rate of about 10%, exports 15% of the actual annual growth rate. in accordance with the nominal value of the count, in 2008 the export of 553 times in 1978, GDP is 83 times in 1978, the former is 6.7 times the latter . As a result, trade accounts for a substantial proportion of GDP rose. in accordance with the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of Chinese exports and GDP in 1978 to 4.6%, 16.1% in 1990, the year 2000 is 20.8%, 37.5% in 2007. This year, China's trade surplus accounted for 8% of GDP, while the U.S. deficit is 8% of its GDP by the end of .2008, China's foreign exchange reserves more than 2 trillion U.S. dollars.
China Import and Export-GDP ratio (Click to see big picture clarity )
2001 years later, China's export growth there is a leap forward. There are many reasons, including to join WTO and to enhance the competitiveness of China is undeniable, but also with the RMB exchange rate related. because the yuan is undervalued, and for enterprises, International trade is more profitable than domestic trade .2008 financial crisis, the government continued to export subsidies, export subsidies but did not consider this much is good, if only for export and export. the first half of this year, exports reached 8,000 billion, equivalent to 5% of GDP. This is the number of export subsidies there? worth it to pay these subsidies? needs careful study.
the crisis, China's exports were hindered, I think it is not a year or two short-term crisis, but a long-term adjustment process. Why? In general, the greater the economies of scale, the smaller the proportion of trade in GDP, (the extreme, the world's only one country, this proportion is 0). We can see a set of data, the world ten large economies, only Germany's export-GDP share (39.9%) than Chinese (37.5%). other countries, the United States 8.4%, Japan 16.3%, UK 15.7%, France 21.6%, Italy 23.4%, Spain 7.4 %, Canada 29.2%, Brazil 12.2%, including 25.6% of the world average, are lower than China (see below). What does this mean? One possibility is that our GDP has been underestimated, another possibility is that we export dependence is indeed too high.
exports accounted for the major economies, the proportion of GDP ((2007, sorted by economic size) (Click for larger image clarity)
is also worth noting that, according to China's official statistics, 55% of the population are agricultural population, in which case, the export share of GDP, should not be so high, at least not compared with other industrialized countries, because many products are self-sufficient farmers. Now, China's exports such a high proportion of GDP, while there are so many farmers, indicating which problems.
if this financial crisis and trade imbalance, and that the export growth that we can no longer be maintained. regardless of whether the implementation of trade protectionism in other countries policy, the future for China to export to boost the growth of GDP is almost impossible. The next step how to do? will need to balance the two markets, especially the development of the domestic market. here that the development of the domestic market, not what we often hear larger, deeper degree of provincial economic zones, economic zones if we are to each as a separate mm top four China provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Guangdong as an independent if the economy, the size of its economy in 2008 can be ranked 18th in the world (according to the GDP, exchange rates, the same below), then in Turkey (equivalent to 67% in Turkey), more than Poland, Indonesia (the world's 4th largest population of the country), Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia;
mm No. 2 and No. 3 in the Shandong and Jiangsu, economies of scale more than Norway, Austria, Iran, Greece, Denmark, Argentina;
mm Zhejiang No. 4, economies of scale over Venezuela, Ireland, South Africa;
mm ranked No. 5 in Henan economies of scale over Finland, Thailand, Portugal, Colombia;
mm ranked No. 6 in Hebei, economies of scale over the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Nigeria;
mm ranked No. 7 and No. 8 in Shanghai, Liaoning, economic size of more than Romania, Israel, Malaysia;
mm No. 9 of Sichuan, economies of scale than Singapore, Ukraine, Algeria, Chile;
mm No. 10, Hubei, economies of scale over Pakistan, the Philippines; < br> mm number 11 in Hunan, economies of scale over the United Arab Emirates, Egypt;
mm No. 12 and No. 13 in Fujian, Beijing, economies of scale in excess of Hungary;
mm ranked 14th in Anhui economies of scale over Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Peru;
mm No. 15 and No. 16 in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, economies of scale in excess of Kuwait;
mm number 17 in Guangxi, Shanxi Province No. 18, Article 19 in Shaanxi, economies of scale in excess of Libya;
mm ranked 20th Jiangxi, economies of scale over Slovakia;
mm No. 21 and No. 22 in Tianjin, Jilin, economies of scale are more than Vietnam and Morocco;
mm ranked No. 23 in Yunnan, economies of scale over Angola and Bangladesh;
mm ranked No. 24 in Chongqing, the economic size of more than Croatia;
mm ranked No. 25 in Xinjiang, economies of scale over Belarus, Sudan, Luxembourg, Qatar, Serbia, Bulgaria;
mm ranked 26 and 27 in Guizhou, Gansu, economies of scale over Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, Panama;
mm No. 28 Hainan, economies of scale over Cyprus, Tanzania, Jordan, Bolivia, Iceland;
mm ranked 29th in Ningxia, economies of scale than of Ghana, Jamaica, Uganda;
mm No. 30 of Qinghai, economies of scale than Zambia, Honduras, Nepal, Myanmar;
mm at the bottom side of Tibet, Mongolia, the economic scale than other countries ..
look at the population. population size is an important determinant of market size. China Mobile will become the world's largest telecommunications company, is because China's large population, the rise of .200 years ago, the United Kingdom, the world's population but 10 million, accounting for 2% of the UK population, the British colony of the reasons to engage the local population size is too small; 100 years ago, the United States rise, the world's 1.6 billion population, however, the U.S. population accounts for about 5%. Today, China's population has more than 1.3 billion, almost equal to the total population of the world 100 years ago than today's developed countries is also higher than the total population of 1 / 4. This is why the Chinese market attention because countries in the world.
provincial point of view, the population of many provinces in China has great power over many of the world total population. China's three most populous provinces are Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, a population of over the Philippines, Vietnam, Germany (4th largest world economy); Ningxia, Qinghai, more than Singapore, New Zealand; Tibet is also over Mongolia.
comparison of these two areas is to illustrate the market potential of China itself how much . between provinces varied, mutually beneficial trade and division of very promising. if we can do a good job of trade between provinces in China, China itself will be able to create a world-class market. two hundred years ago, the founder of economics Adam . Smith to exclaim to: the size of the domestic market as much as all European countries combined size of the market. Now to the real development of this huge market of the time!
development of the domestic market, is inseparable from the Midwest development. In the past coastal-led economic growth and export-led growth is matching. In the future, the central and western regions will become more important. The good news is that the regional structure of China's economic growth has begun to shift to the benefit of the Midwest . reform and opening up 10 years after the first, the second 10 years, the growth rate over the middle east and the west, but in the third 10 years, especially in the past 5-6 years, the western and central growing faster than the east. the first 10 annual growth rate of the top four are: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, all the eastern provinces; the second 10 years, the former four are Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, coastal provinces are still ; but the third 10 years ago four of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Ningxia, the Midwest accounted for 3. Over the past 6 years, from 2003 to 2008, the first is the Inner Mongolia, Henan is the second, followed by Shaanxi , Shandong, Shanxi.
This shows China's regional economic growth is the transfer, also shows the gap between China began to shrink, so do not easily believe that the growing difference between China's claim. domestic market development, we must will lead to the eastern, central and western equalization of per capita income, the gap between eastern and western China are expected in the next round of significant contraction in 30 years, and gradually eliminate.
rely on to develop the domestic market?
general, support a national economic growth has several elements: first, protection of property rights; the second is a scientific and rational thinking; third is the development of capital markets; Fourth, transport and communications.
past 30 years, the traffic situation in China changed dramatically in 1988, only the first expressway in China (100 km), 1995 Highway is 2,100 km in China, to 2008, is already more than 60,000 km and an annual rate of 4,5 thousand kilometers increase. rough estimate, compared with 20 years, the transit time between two points reduced by 50% to about two-thirds (of course, except within cities). This is a very important thing, like 20 years ago do not think cost-effective business between the two places, now a bargain. the economic crisis, China's road construction (including highways and high-iron) into very large, which has a huge future impact of economic development. In short, lower transport costs , is bound to be more developed division of labor and exchange. Without the steam engine, railways, ships, the world economy can not be integrated. The rapid development of China Communications, China will lay a good foundation for economic integration.
However, the development of the domestic The main obstacle to the market, not the transport and communications infrastructure such hardware, but institutional costs. International trade and domestic trade, the main difference is the division of sovereignty due to transaction costs are different. As international trade between different sovereign states the emergence of currency exchange, customs inspection, customs duties and non-tariff protection and other matters, the cost of making international trade more than domestic trade costs. Therefore, reducing the costs of international trade, world economic development trends, such as the establishment of the European Union, that is, make between different European countries, .
Unfortunately, China's administrative division and the government-led economic system, so in many cases the transaction costs of domestic trade is higher than the international trade. Thus, not all regions of the comparative advantages into full play, seriously affecting development of the domestic market. This is over-dependence on exports of China's economic growth is an important reason. the future adjustment of the administrative region of China is divided, the market should respect the property of the region itself, weaken the administrative function, otherwise, people would cut off the regional administrative division of between the reasonable market division of labor. In addition, all kinds of local protection policy must be repealed. When China held high in the international free trade banner, do not forget the needs of the domestic market to free trade.
Another factor impeding the development of the domestic market is the business culture and integrity. If you ask China's export manufacturers, why 70m80% of the products are exported, rather than do the domestic market? he might answer: the domestic market difficult. The challenge is signing the contract, has paid a stock , but can not get money for a long time; and exports, as long as signed the contract, will be able to receive payment in the contract period. Therefore, some companies prefer low-priced exports, domestic customers do not want to sell at high prices, the domestic market uncertainty sex too. see, if not strengthened the rule of law, the contract is not effectively implemented, there are rampant local protectionism, then there is no confidence in the Chinese entrepreneurs to open up the domestic market.
, of course, do not think opening up is not important a. to GDP, exports accounted for the provinces, the provinces are very different, the situation in 2007 were: 91% of Guangdong, Shanghai 85.6%, 61.3%, Jiangsu, Tianjin, 57.4%, 55.4% Zhejiang, Fujian, 40%, and then other provinces, no more than ten per cent. Many provinces in the proportion of international trade is very low, only 4.7% of Inner Mongolia, Henan is China's fifth largest economy, but the proportion of exports accounted for only 4.6% of GDP, which shows in the Midwest there is a huge space development of international trade.
the future development of Chinese economy will also accompanied by urbanization. China's current urban population 45% of the total population, the reform and opening up this ratio is 18%, the next 30 years may an increase of 75%. It is not impossible, it should be said is necessary. an agricultural population accounts for the majority of countries, developed countries can not become a real economic. Over the past 30 years, China's 100 million population increase of roughly 200; future 30 years, China has 400 million people into cities from rural areas, if a city's population at 100 million calculations, China to increase such cities 400.
enterprises to make market forecasts, including real estate development, should see this point. the country's development strategies, including new rural construction, also should consider this point. Since there are so many people come to the city, but also spend so much money in the rural areas, is reasonable and cost-effective? after completing construction of those facilities, who use? spend a lot of resources, is there value? help the rural population into the city if not better? are worth considering.
industrial innovation and integration
In addition to developing the domestic market, economic development, the second change from low cost to high value-added industrial upgrading. Over the past 30 years, Chinese products to open the international market, the reason the price. The problem is that low-cost but also how long? the past three or four years, Beijing has nearly nanny wages doubled; in coastal areas, there have been , production of higher value-added products.
how the innovative capability of Chinese enterprises? in the Chinese Patent Office granted the patent in all, broadly divided into three categories: invention patents, utility model patents and design patents. which patent embodies the core competence of the rigid target, the other two types of patent somewhat , only 11% of Chinese enterprises and more; from the time series point of view, the proportion of foreign firms is much higher than China. China's many patents solely for competitions, awards, set up, technical content and very little commercial value. Chinese enterprises ability to innovate is not optimistic.
Historically, the rise of a country, along with some revolutionary technology, the emergence of industries, such as Britain's steam engine and textile industry, the German chemical industry, the U.S. automotive, electronic communications , IT industry, the technology has changed the economic structure, which changed the world. do not create new industries, countries can not become a true world economic power. However, the creation of new industries can not rely on government investment. to grasp market trends is not a government official's strong suit. There was the local government has spent heavily to introduce video recorder product line, the resulting product not yet off the assembly line, the market has been the VCR obsolete. not to mention a large number of government investment in the hidden corruption, waste, fraud opportunities.
Industry upgrade process is a market-oriented, rely on entrepreneurs to discover. the benefits of the market is always able to anticipate future trends in selected entrepreneurs to enable them to become the new industry leader. Chinese entrepreneurs need to work to see, What kind of technology can have a decisive impact on the future, what kind of industries can lead the economic development in the future. Unfortunately, however, Chinese entrepreneurs also need to spend too much energy on non-market, non-technical side, foreign entrepreneurs together discuss the industry, future of the industry structure, and Chinese entrepreneurs together to discuss the most or the political or policy issues. so to further reduce government intervention in the market.
a national innovation capacity, not the leader of one or two words can be determined. education system is especially important. We have to foster scientific and rational thinking. not the formation of the Enlightenment after the Renaissance the scientific, rational thinking, there would be the rise of the Western world. China's education has not little progress, but still too much ideological influence on people's thinking too much control, and efficiency of the education system is too low, must be big changes.
the last change, from the number of firms increased to industrial integration. general the past 30 years China's economic growth depends mainly on the new small and medium enterprises continue to increase. the crisis, China may experience growth from enterprise to enterprise-scale expansion of the number of changes, industry mergers and acquisitions (both domestic and cross-border M & M) will form a new wave, industrial concentration will be greatly enhanced. Western countries in the development of regional, large-scale multinational corporations in the crisis there is more. crisis also has a positive side. dead is completely gone; business is dead, is actually a reorganization of assets, so that assets become more effective. The state should adjust its policy in this regard, rely on loans to enterprises is not a way to save, the bankruptcy of the bankrupt to make it the only way to truly outstanding enterprises grow up and become the economic driving force.
vigilance , depending on the market-oriented reforms are not carried out in the end. the so-called market-oriented reform, that is, price liberalization, enterprise privatization, decentralization, liberalization and globalization. China's reform is not well designed or thought can be accomplished, a lot is forced out. life easier when no one wants reform, not live to think about the days of reform. Do not forget how we came to be.
to price liberalization, for example, in 1978, 100% of the industrial national pricing, roughly 15 years later, the proportion of the market pricing of industrial products accounted for 81%, to 2004, close to 90%.
there are state-owned enterprise reform. the first 15 years, the state-owned enterprise property right system has not changed, However, access by non-state enterprises, the development of state-owned economy in reducing the relative weight; after 15 years, turned to its own system of state-owned enterprise reform, including the listing and auction. the results to the urban population employed, for example, in 1978, there 78.3% of the urban population employed in state-owned enterprises, by 2006, this proportion dropped to 22.7%.
before and after the crisis, there has been a phenomenon that state-owned enterprises forced acquisition of private enterprises, it is need to guard against. In the long run, this crisis is more likely to spend money on state-owned enterprises, the more likely bankruptcy. by past experience, a few years of bad and doubtful debts of these state-owned enterprises will increase, the bank will carry out debt restructuring .1990 years ago, the state-owned enterprises to find money to banks, accumulated a large number of bad debts, ultimately, sold. has been restructured once, this is not a major crisis in China, because A few years ago has spent trillions to solve this problem. In addition, increasing the welfare state promised, future revenues can not support the normal, the only way to solve the funding problem is to sell shares in state-owned enterprises.
state-owned economy the proportion is now around 36% by 2040 should be 10% or less, whether willing or unwilling, the result could only be the case. the basic tasks of state-owned enterprises has been completed, no need to open national congress to discuss the direction problem. Those state-owned enterprises has the largest market, after only a technical, operational problems, that is, how fast reduction of the state-owned shares. institutions such as the China Central Television, the future is also likely to take the privatization. due to network, local station competition and its advantages will continue to decrease, in the end may be no one out. Taiwan is the case, the original Business short-term ups and downs, but the results of the reform over the past 30 years, the general trend of market reform has not changed. now live in a good state-owned enterprises, the basic is to make money by monopolizing the efficiency is very low; state-owned enterprises account for two-thirds of the society financial resources, but only one-third of the value created, they are after privatization, imagine what China's economic potential will be brought out.
the direction and path of political reform in emerging
developed countries, China's reform point most worth learning, is to engage in the market, and then engage in democratization. This is the place of Deng Xiaoping's wise. democratize walk in the country before the market, the effect is not very good, including India. Why did the market have to go Prior to democratization? because democracy is a political system, with the political system is forced to solve the problem, and should not be the first choice.
market decision-making and political decision-making What's the difference? For example, in a group, there 300 people want to eat, market decision-making is a personal choice, each person's preferences can be met. like all democratic political decisions by voting to eat meat or vegetarian; that if more than 50% meat, all to be eat meat. democracy is compelling way. If a country before the establishment of a good system of property rights, the government also controls a large number of resources, that democracy can solve the problem, to engage in electoral democracy, it is easy to solve the original should be left to the market decision-making to the government, not only led to efficiency loss, but will breed corruption seriously. Therefore, we should first define the role of a good range of markets and governments, as far as possible options to the market.
another one, the rise of the middle class is important. If there is no broad middle class, democratization is likely to become a populist, and even lead to mob rule. Democracy is the basis to establish the rule of law, which requires every citizen with basic civic awareness and responsibility. the middle class have a certain private property, but not rich enough to the extent of casual bullying; they are willing and able to bear the responsibility, hope and social stability, do not like chaos. If a majority of people in a free society ...
Weiying (Dean of Guanghua School of Management)
each person's life or career, a peak is also low. It is easy to over-pessimistic at low tide, the peak has often carried away. A country or society as well. Today's world economy, at a relatively low stage, the impact of the global financial crisis has not been eliminated. how to view the future of China and the world economy? best put it in a longer historical perspective. < br> populous country will return to the economic power
recorded history of mankind is five thousand years. According to economic historian Angus. Madison research in the history of mankind for a long time, countries (regions) Population size and economies of scale highly correlated; or that the size of the population decided to economies of scale. Population size and economies of scale separation between the last 200 years occurred. measured by GDP per capita over the past little difference between countries, such as AD 1500, richest countries per capita GDP is 3 times of the poorest countries; and now, a few developed countries like the United States and per capita GDP, is a backward country several times, or even a hundred times.
Madison-based data, can calculate the size of the population and correlation coefficient of economies of scale in the year 1500 for the 0.9972,1700 0.964,1820 still as high as 0.9423 in, but then declined sharply: in 1870 for the 0.3404,1950 years 0.6393,1913 0.1554, 1973, 0.148mm That is, until 1973 when the population size has nothing to do with economies of scale, such as 54.6% of the world population in Asia (excluding Japan), GDP accounted for only 16.4% of the world; and 18.4 of the world population % of the developed countries, GDP accounted for 58.7% of the world. This situation in the past began to reverse 30 years: Population size and economies of scale in the correlation coefficient increased to 0.5185 in 2003, is expected to rise further in 2030 to 0.733.
the size of population and GDP correlation coefficient (1000-2003)
why the past 250 years, GDP per capita gap between countries, economies of scale and the approximate size of the population no longer have reciprocity? simply because different different countries embarked on the road system, the first mm in some countries embarked on the road of market economy, and some countries do not. Although there are various debates on the details, but modern economic theory and social practice has shown that market economy is economic development and the most effective means to improve people's livelihood. If the economic system is no longer whether or not the difference between the market economy, that the world market economy, differences in per capita GDP will gradually disappear. This is what happened in the past 30 years . China's market reforms and other countries began to reverse the past 200 years, the worldwide emergence of population size and divergence between the economies of scale.
So, I have a bold speculation, according to current trends, the next 50 years , 100 years later, humans may then return to the 19th century the state before, that a country's economic size and population of similar size, large population but also economic power. today's world, except China, India, the largest population, the Asian population of the world for nearly 60 %. The so-called 21st century is the century of Asia, which is the relationship between population size and economic scale of the return, or is Adam. Smith's 1776 This trend can be seen now.
major economies of the world GDP, GDP (Click to see a larger clear)
Madison on the map is the estimated proportion. Broadly speaking, in accordance with the purchasing power parity calculation, Year 0 in the Western Han Dynasty, India's GDP of the world the proportion of 1 / 3, to 1820, China's GDP of the world's 1 / 3, to the World War II after 1950, the U.S. GDP of the world 1 / Top 4 (27.3%).'s future status will be like? He speculated that the year 2030, which is another 20 years, China's GDP may reach 23% of the world's total, 10% in India, the United States 17% Western Europe, amount to about 13% of the world.
from, you can see China's changes over the past 30 years. a country's international weight and the right to speak, depends on its economic strength. In recent years, the world China really can not do without, whether good or bad, people do not take you originally play, G7, G8, OECD, etc., are not the Chinese copies; now you gotta do is talk, you have to take . This is in the current financial crisis is most evident.
the most crucial changes: First, from the mainly rely on exports to drive growth in the domestic and foreign markets are more balanced growth; second is from the low-cost, low-cost resources, cheap labor support growth, innovation-based, higher value-added type of growth; third is the natural mode of growth from the enterprise, integrated into industry growth. The progress of these changes, but also depends on China's reform, including economic reform and political reform. Globalization is the background of these changes. < br> globalization on the world and the Chinese economy
economic globalization is a long historical process. upsurge of globalization occurred in the first 1870 to more than 40 years between 1913, the World War I began to 1950 is the Although non-belligerent trade is increasing. In 1929, the popular trade protectionism, coupled with the impact of World War II to 1950, world exports-GDP dropped to 5.5%, only 0.9 more than 1870 high- percentage points (see below).
major economies around the world and of its GDP, the value of merchandise exports (Click to see larger image clarity)
1950 years later, a new wave of globalization, especially after the 1980s, globalization further accelerate the wave of .2007, the average world GDP, exports accounted for 25.6%. Equally important, this way of globalization has also undergone a huge change, that is, trade in products from the simple to the division of the global value chain . it's you produce apples, peaches I produce, you sell me the apple, I put the peaches to sell you that someone special nursery, some special fertilizer, was specifically picked more detailed division of labor. The point is not the final product between trade, but the value chain of trade between different regions; the value chain to make a link edge, companies can succeed. This is a feature of current globalization.
globalization changed the world economic and political structure. If the first globalization, China is the biggest victim, then this time of globalization, China is the biggest beneficiary mm although overall, countries are the beneficiaries of globalization. Without this globalization, the Chinese economy can not maintain 30 years of rapid growth, China's international status would not be present. The globalization of production of every aspect of separated, non-integrated production process, to achieve the economic growth of countries in the world, China is seizing the opportunity to become the manufacturing superpower .100 100 years ago after years of globalization and the globalization of the fate of the Chinese had the opposite effect. < br> 2008 financial crisis since the 1929 crisis will not repeat the mistakes to globalization? my personal judgments, the export share of total GDP growth will stagnate or even decline, but not large-scale regression. last time lesson has taught us that trade protection is not a solution to the problem. the United States in 1931 published the Most of the trade protection policies, some people are fighting under the banner of the name of national self-interest. This is the revelation of the financial crisis. If the world and then to impose trade protection policy, we stay in recession longer, rather than the more short.
export-driven economic growth in China is no longer sustainable
in the past 30 years, most years, China's international trade growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate. Generally speaking, China's actual GDP annual growth rate of about 10%, exports 15% of the actual annual growth rate. in accordance with the nominal value of the count, in 2008 the export of 553 times in 1978, GDP is 83 times in 1978, the former is 6.7 times the latter . As a result, trade accounts for a substantial proportion of GDP rose. in accordance with the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of Chinese exports and GDP in 1978 to 4.6%, 16.1% in 1990, the year 2000 is 20.8%, 37.5% in 2007. This year, China's trade surplus accounted for 8% of GDP, while the U.S. deficit is 8% of its GDP by the end of .2008, China's foreign exchange reserves more than 2 trillion U.S. dollars.
China Import and Export-GDP ratio (Click to see big picture clarity )
2001 years later, China's export growth there is a leap forward. There are many reasons, including to join WTO and to enhance the competitiveness of China is undeniable, but also with the RMB exchange rate related. because the yuan is undervalued, and for enterprises, International trade is more profitable than domestic trade .2008 financial crisis, the government continued to export subsidies, export subsidies but did not consider this much is good, if only for export and export. the first half of this year, exports reached 8,000 billion, equivalent to 5% of GDP. This is the number of export subsidies there? worth it to pay these subsidies? needs careful study.
the crisis, China's exports were hindered, I think it is not a year or two short-term crisis, but a long-term adjustment process. Why? In general, the greater the economies of scale, the smaller the proportion of trade in GDP, (the extreme, the world's only one country, this proportion is 0). We can see a set of data, the world ten large economies, only Germany's export-GDP share (39.9%) than Chinese (37.5%). other countries, the United States 8.4%, Japan 16.3%, UK 15.7%, France 21.6%, Italy 23.4%, Spain 7.4 %, Canada 29.2%, Brazil 12.2%, including 25.6% of the world average, are lower than China (see below). What does this mean? One possibility is that our GDP has been underestimated, another possibility is that we export dependence is indeed too high.
exports accounted for the major economies, the proportion of GDP ((2007, sorted by economic size) (Click for larger image clarity)
is also worth noting that, according to China's official statistics, 55% of the population are agricultural population, in which case, the export share of GDP, should not be so high, at least not compared with other industrialized countries, because many products are self-sufficient farmers. Now, China's exports such a high proportion of GDP, while there are so many farmers, indicating which problems.
if this financial crisis and trade imbalance, and that the export growth that we can no longer be maintained. regardless of whether the implementation of trade protectionism in other countries policy, the future for China to export to boost the growth of GDP is almost impossible. The next step how to do? will need to balance the two markets, especially the development of the domestic market. here that the development of the domestic market, not what we often hear larger, deeper degree of provincial economic zones, economic zones if we are to each as a separate mm top four China provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Guangdong as an independent if the economy, the size of its economy in 2008 can be ranked 18th in the world (according to the GDP, exchange rates, the same below), then in Turkey (equivalent to 67% in Turkey), more than Poland, Indonesia (the world's 4th largest population of the country), Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia;
mm No. 2 and No. 3 in the Shandong and Jiangsu, economies of scale more than Norway, Austria, Iran, Greece, Denmark, Argentina;
mm Zhejiang No. 4, economies of scale over Venezuela, Ireland, South Africa;
mm ranked No. 5 in Henan economies of scale over Finland, Thailand, Portugal, Colombia;
mm ranked No. 6 in Hebei, economies of scale over the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Nigeria;
mm ranked No. 7 and No. 8 in Shanghai, Liaoning, economic size of more than Romania, Israel, Malaysia;
mm No. 9 of Sichuan, economies of scale than Singapore, Ukraine, Algeria, Chile;
mm No. 10, Hubei, economies of scale over Pakistan, the Philippines; < br> mm number 11 in Hunan, economies of scale over the United Arab Emirates, Egypt;
mm No. 12 and No. 13 in Fujian, Beijing, economies of scale in excess of Hungary;
mm ranked 14th in Anhui economies of scale over Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Peru;
mm No. 15 and No. 16 in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, economies of scale in excess of Kuwait;
mm number 17 in Guangxi, Shanxi Province No. 18, Article 19 in Shaanxi, economies of scale in excess of Libya;
mm ranked 20th Jiangxi, economies of scale over Slovakia;
mm No. 21 and No. 22 in Tianjin, Jilin, economies of scale are more than Vietnam and Morocco;
mm ranked No. 23 in Yunnan, economies of scale over Angola and Bangladesh;
mm ranked No. 24 in Chongqing, the economic size of more than Croatia;
mm ranked No. 25 in Xinjiang, economies of scale over Belarus, Sudan, Luxembourg, Qatar, Serbia, Bulgaria;
mm ranked 26 and 27 in Guizhou, Gansu, economies of scale over Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, Panama;
mm No. 28 Hainan, economies of scale over Cyprus, Tanzania, Jordan, Bolivia, Iceland;
mm ranked 29th in Ningxia, economies of scale than of Ghana, Jamaica, Uganda;
mm No. 30 of Qinghai, economies of scale than Zambia, Honduras, Nepal, Myanmar;
mm at the bottom side of Tibet, Mongolia, the economic scale than other countries ..
look at the population. population size is an important determinant of market size. China Mobile will become the world's largest telecommunications company, is because China's large population, the rise of .200 years ago, the United Kingdom, the world's population but 10 million, accounting for 2% of the UK population, the British colony of the reasons to engage the local population size is too small; 100 years ago, the United States rise, the world's 1.6 billion population, however, the U.S. population accounts for about 5%. Today, China's population has more than 1.3 billion, almost equal to the total population of the world 100 years ago than today's developed countries is also higher than the total population of 1 / 4. This is why the Chinese market attention because countries in the world.
provincial point of view, the population of many provinces in China has great power over many of the world total population. China's three most populous provinces are Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, a population of over the Philippines, Vietnam, Germany (4th largest world economy); Ningxia, Qinghai, more than Singapore, New Zealand; Tibet is also over Mongolia.
comparison of these two areas is to illustrate the market potential of China itself how much . between provinces varied, mutually beneficial trade and division of very promising. if we can do a good job of trade between provinces in China, China itself will be able to create a world-class market. two hundred years ago, the founder of economics Adam . Smith to exclaim to: the size of the domestic market as much as all European countries combined size of the market. Now to the real development of this huge market of the time!
development of the domestic market, is inseparable from the Midwest development. In the past coastal-led economic growth and export-led growth is matching. In the future, the central and western regions will become more important. The good news is that the regional structure of China's economic growth has begun to shift to the benefit of the Midwest . reform and opening up 10 years after the first, the second 10 years, the growth rate over the middle east and the west, but in the third 10 years, especially in the past 5-6 years, the western and central growing faster than the east. the first 10 annual growth rate of the top four are: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, all the eastern provinces; the second 10 years, the former four are Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, coastal provinces are still ; but the third 10 years ago four of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Ningxia, the Midwest accounted for 3. Over the past 6 years, from 2003 to 2008, the first is the Inner Mongolia, Henan is the second, followed by Shaanxi , Shandong, Shanxi.
This shows China's regional economic growth is the transfer, also shows the gap between China began to shrink, so do not easily believe that the growing difference between China's claim. domestic market development, we must will lead to the eastern, central and western equalization of per capita income, the gap between eastern and western China are expected in the next round of significant contraction in 30 years, and gradually eliminate.
rely on to develop the domestic market?
general, support a national economic growth has several elements: first, protection of property rights; the second is a scientific and rational thinking; third is the development of capital markets; Fourth, transport and communications.
past 30 years, the traffic situation in China changed dramatically in 1988, only the first expressway in China (100 km), 1995 Highway is 2,100 km in China, to 2008, is already more than 60,000 km and an annual rate of 4,5 thousand kilometers increase. rough estimate, compared with 20 years, the transit time between two points reduced by 50% to about two-thirds (of course, except within cities). This is a very important thing, like 20 years ago do not think cost-effective business between the two places, now a bargain. the economic crisis, China's road construction (including highways and high-iron) into very large, which has a huge future impact of economic development. In short, lower transport costs , is bound to be more developed division of labor and exchange. Without the steam engine, railways, ships, the world economy can not be integrated. The rapid development of China Communications, China will lay a good foundation for economic integration.
However, the development of the domestic The main obstacle to the market, not the transport and communications infrastructure such hardware, but institutional costs. International trade and domestic trade, the main difference is the division of sovereignty due to transaction costs are different. As international trade between different sovereign states the emergence of currency exchange, customs inspection, customs duties and non-tariff protection and other matters, the cost of making international trade more than domestic trade costs. Therefore, reducing the costs of international trade, world economic development trends, such as the establishment of the European Union, that is, make between different European countries, .
Unfortunately, China's administrative division and the government-led economic system, so in many cases the transaction costs of domestic trade is higher than the international trade. Thus, not all regions of the comparative advantages into full play, seriously affecting development of the domestic market. This is over-dependence on exports of China's economic growth is an important reason. the future adjustment of the administrative region of China is divided, the market should respect the property of the region itself, weaken the administrative function, otherwise, people would cut off the regional administrative division of between the reasonable market division of labor. In addition, all kinds of local protection policy must be repealed. When China held high in the international free trade banner, do not forget the needs of the domestic market to free trade.
Another factor impeding the development of the domestic market is the business culture and integrity. If you ask China's export manufacturers, why 70m80% of the products are exported, rather than do the domestic market? he might answer: the domestic market difficult. The challenge is signing the contract, has paid a stock , but can not get money for a long time; and exports, as long as signed the contract, will be able to receive payment in the contract period. Therefore, some companies prefer low-priced exports, domestic customers do not want to sell at high prices, the domestic market uncertainty sex too. see, if not strengthened the rule of law, the contract is not effectively implemented, there are rampant local protectionism, then there is no confidence in the Chinese entrepreneurs to open up the domestic market.
, of course, do not think opening up is not important a. to GDP, exports accounted for the provinces, the provinces are very different, the situation in 2007 were: 91% of Guangdong, Shanghai 85.6%, 61.3%, Jiangsu, Tianjin, 57.4%, 55.4% Zhejiang, Fujian, 40%, and then other provinces, no more than ten per cent. Many provinces in the proportion of international trade is very low, only 4.7% of Inner Mongolia, Henan is China's fifth largest economy, but the proportion of exports accounted for only 4.6% of GDP, which shows in the Midwest there is a huge space development of international trade.
the future development of Chinese economy will also accompanied by urbanization. China's current urban population 45% of the total population, the reform and opening up this ratio is 18%, the next 30 years may an increase of 75%. It is not impossible, it should be said is necessary. an agricultural population accounts for the majority of countries, developed countries can not become a real economic. Over the past 30 years, China's 100 million population increase of roughly 200; future 30 years, China has 400 million people into cities from rural areas, if a city's population at 100 million calculations, China to increase such cities 400.
enterprises to make market forecasts, including real estate development, should see this point. the country's development strategies, including new rural construction, also should consider this point. Since there are so many people come to the city, but also spend so much money in the rural areas, is reasonable and cost-effective? after completing construction of those facilities, who use? spend a lot of resources, is there value? help the rural population into the city if not better? are worth considering.
industrial innovation and integration
In addition to developing the domestic market, economic development, the second change from low cost to high value-added industrial upgrading. Over the past 30 years, Chinese products to open the international market, the reason the price. The problem is that low-cost but also how long? the past three or four years, Beijing has nearly nanny wages doubled; in coastal areas, there have been , production of higher value-added products.
how the innovative capability of Chinese enterprises? in the Chinese Patent Office granted the patent in all, broadly divided into three categories: invention patents, utility model patents and design patents. which patent embodies the core competence of the rigid target, the other two types of patent somewhat , only 11% of Chinese enterprises and more; from the time series point of view, the proportion of foreign firms is much higher than China. China's many patents solely for competitions, awards, set up, technical content and very little commercial value. Chinese enterprises ability to innovate is not optimistic.
Historically, the rise of a country, along with some revolutionary technology, the emergence of industries, such as Britain's steam engine and textile industry, the German chemical industry, the U.S. automotive, electronic communications , IT industry, the technology has changed the economic structure, which changed the world. do not create new industries, countries can not become a true world economic power. However, the creation of new industries can not rely on government investment. to grasp market trends is not a government official's strong suit. There was the local government has spent heavily to introduce video recorder product line, the resulting product not yet off the assembly line, the market has been the VCR obsolete. not to mention a large number of government investment in the hidden corruption, waste, fraud opportunities.
Industry upgrade process is a market-oriented, rely on entrepreneurs to discover. the benefits of the market is always able to anticipate future trends in selected entrepreneurs to enable them to become the new industry leader. Chinese entrepreneurs need to work to see, What kind of technology can have a decisive impact on the future, what kind of industries can lead the economic development in the future. Unfortunately, however, Chinese entrepreneurs also need to spend too much energy on non-market, non-technical side, foreign entrepreneurs together discuss the industry, future of the industry structure, and Chinese entrepreneurs together to discuss the most or the political or policy issues. so to further reduce government intervention in the market.
a national innovation capacity, not the leader of one or two words can be determined. education system is especially important. We have to foster scientific and rational thinking. not the formation of the Enlightenment after the Renaissance the scientific, rational thinking, there would be the rise of the Western world. China's education has not little progress, but still too much ideological influence on people's thinking too much control, and efficiency of the education system is too low, must be big changes.
the last change, from the number of firms increased to industrial integration. general the past 30 years China's economic growth depends mainly on the new small and medium enterprises continue to increase. the crisis, China may experience growth from enterprise to enterprise-scale expansion of the number of changes, industry mergers and acquisitions (both domestic and cross-border M & M) will form a new wave, industrial concentration will be greatly enhanced. Western countries in the development of regional, large-scale multinational corporations in the crisis there is more. crisis also has a positive side. dead is completely gone; business is dead, is actually a reorganization of assets, so that assets become more effective. The state should adjust its policy in this regard, rely on loans to enterprises is not a way to save, the bankruptcy of the bankrupt to make it the only way to truly outstanding enterprises grow up and become the economic driving force.
vigilance , depending on the market-oriented reforms are not carried out in the end. the so-called market-oriented reform, that is, price liberalization, enterprise privatization, decentralization, liberalization and globalization. China's reform is not well designed or thought can be accomplished, a lot is forced out. life easier when no one wants reform, not live to think about the days of reform. Do not forget how we came to be.
to price liberalization, for example, in 1978, 100% of the industrial national pricing, roughly 15 years later, the proportion of the market pricing of industrial products accounted for 81%, to 2004, close to 90%.
there are state-owned enterprise reform. the first 15 years, the state-owned enterprise property right system has not changed, However, access by non-state enterprises, the development of state-owned economy in reducing the relative weight; after 15 years, turned to its own system of state-owned enterprise reform, including the listing and auction. the results to the urban population employed, for example, in 1978, there 78.3% of the urban population employed in state-owned enterprises, by 2006, this proportion dropped to 22.7%.
before and after the crisis, there has been a phenomenon that state-owned enterprises forced acquisition of private enterprises, it is need to guard against. In the long run, this crisis is more likely to spend money on state-owned enterprises, the more likely bankruptcy. by past experience, a few years of bad and doubtful debts of these state-owned enterprises will increase, the bank will carry out debt restructuring .1990 years ago, the state-owned enterprises to find money to banks, accumulated a large number of bad debts, ultimately, sold. has been restructured once, this is not a major crisis in China, because A few years ago has spent trillions to solve this problem. In addition, increasing the welfare state promised, future revenues can not support the normal, the only way to solve the funding problem is to sell shares in state-owned enterprises.
state-owned economy the proportion is now around 36% by 2040 should be 10% or less, whether willing or unwilling, the result could only be the case. the basic tasks of state-owned enterprises has been completed, no need to open national congress to discuss the direction problem. Those state-owned enterprises has the largest market, after only a technical, operational problems, that is, how fast reduction of the state-owned shares. institutions such as the China Central Television, the future is also likely to take the privatization. due to network, local station competition and its advantages will continue to decrease, in the end may be no one out. Taiwan is the case, the original Business short-term ups and downs, but the results of the reform over the past 30 years, the general trend of market reform has not changed. now live in a good state-owned enterprises, the basic is to make money by monopolizing the efficiency is very low; state-owned enterprises account for two-thirds of the society financial resources, but only one-third of the value created, they are after privatization, imagine what China's economic potential will be brought out.
the direction and path of political reform in emerging
developed countries, China's reform point most worth learning, is to engage in the market, and then engage in democratization. This is the place of Deng Xiaoping's wise. democratize walk in the country before the market, the effect is not very good, including India. Why did the market have to go Prior to democratization? because democracy is a political system, with the political system is forced to solve the problem, and should not be the first choice.
market decision-making and political decision-making What's the difference? For example, in a group, there 300 people want to eat, market decision-making is a personal choice, each person's preferences can be met. like all democratic political decisions by voting to eat meat or vegetarian; that if more than 50% meat, all to be eat meat. democracy is compelling way. If a country before the establishment of a good system of property rights, the government also controls a large number of resources, that democracy can solve the problem, to engage in electoral democracy, it is easy to solve the original should be left to the market decision-making to the government, not only led to efficiency loss, but will breed corruption seriously. Therefore, we should first define the role of a good range of markets and governments, as far as possible options to the market.
another one, the rise of the middle class is important. If there is no broad middle class, democratization is likely to become a populist, and even lead to mob rule. Democracy is the basis to establish the rule of law, which requires every citizen with basic civic awareness and responsibility. the middle class have a certain private property, but not rich enough to the extent of casual bullying; they are willing and able to bear the responsibility, hope and social stability, do not like chaos. If a majority of people in a free society ...
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